Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.042.70safe0.70–2.630.18–1.890.88–4.52safer0.44–2.880.00–2.120.40–5.00
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.333.859.18safe3.46–7.192.11–5.595.57–12.78safer2.97–7.681.64–6.064.62–13.74
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9310.9325.85safe11.00–18.857.36–14.4918.37–33.34safer9.91–19.946.40–15.4516.32–35.39
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.217.7818.00safe7.27–13.165.10–10.4612.37–23.62safer6.44–13.994.36–11.2010.81–25.19
Blocked shots
56%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.437.75safe2.44–6.211.77–5.084.22–11.29safer1.90–6.751.28–5.573.18–12.32
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.844.079.91safe3.63–8.062.07–6.075.70–14.13safer3.06–8.631.54–6.604.59–15.23
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction59.4041.60safe52.61–66.1934.81–48.38safer50.94–67.8633.14–50.05
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction545371916safe478–613304–437782–1050safer460–631287–455747–1086
Pass accuracy %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction75.2369.04safe71.20–79.2664.72–73.36safer69.91–80.5563.41–74.67
Fouls
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1312.6322.77safe7.29–12.979.69–15.5816.98–28.55safer6.54–13.728.94–16.3315.48–30.05
Offsides
41%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.693.49safe0.65–2.970.59–2.781.24–5.75safer0.35–3.270.30–3.070.65–6.34
Yellow cards
22%
20%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.352.263.60safe0.30–2.391.13–3.391.42–5.78safer0.03–2.660.84–3.680.87–6.34
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.726.48safe1.32–4.192.16–5.283.49–9.47safer0.93–4.581.74–5.702.67–10.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.70–2.63 0.44–2.88 | 1.04 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.40–5.00 | 52% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.33 3.46–7.19 2.97–7.68 | 3.85 2.11–5.59 1.64–6.06 | 9.18 5.57–12.78 4.62–13.74 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.93 11.00–18.85 9.91–19.94 | 10.93 7.36–14.49 6.40–15.45 | 25.85 18.37–33.34 16.32–35.39 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 10.21 7.27–13.16 6.44–13.99 | 7.78 5.10–10.46 4.36–11.20 | 18.00 12.37–23.62 10.81–25.19 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.44–6.21 1.90–6.75 | 3.43 1.77–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 7.75 4.22–11.29 3.18–12.32 | 56% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.84 3.63–8.06 3.06–8.63 | 4.07 2.07–6.07 1.54–6.60 | 9.91 5.70–14.13 4.59–15.23 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 59.40 52.61–66.19 50.94–67.86 | 41.60 34.81–48.38 33.14–50.05 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 545 478–613 460–631 | 371 304–437 287–455 | 916 782–1050 747–1086 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.23 71.20–79.26 69.91–80.55 | 69.04 64.72–73.36 63.41–74.67 | — | 77% 19% |
| Fouls | 10.13 7.29–12.97 6.54–13.72 | 12.63 9.69–15.58 8.94–16.33 | 22.77 16.98–28.55 15.48–30.05 | 26% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 1.69 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.07 | 3.49 1.24–5.75 0.65–6.34 | 41% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 0.30–2.39 0.03–2.66 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 3.60 1.42–5.78 0.87–6.34 | 22% 20% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.72 2.16–5.28 1.74–5.70 | 6.48 3.49–9.47 2.67–10.28 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.