Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
18%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction0.942.283.22safe0.00–1.911.42–3.131.39–5.04safer0.00–2.161.19–3.360.91–5.52
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction3.307.0210.32safe1.44–5.175.27–8.766.71–13.92safer0.95–5.664.81–9.225.76–14.88
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5018.9929.48safe6.57–14.4215.42–22.5522.00–36.97safer5.48–15.5114.46–23.5119.95–39.02
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction6.0912.8818.97safe3.15–9.0310.20–15.5613.34–24.59safer2.32–9.869.46–16.2911.78–26.16
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction2.905.768.66safe1.02–4.794.10–7.415.12–12.19safer0.48–5.333.61–7.904.09–13.23
Corners
18%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.856.2710.12safe1.63–6.064.27–8.275.90–14.33safer1.06–6.633.74–8.814.80–15.44
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction33.5266.80safe26.73–40.3160.02–73.59safer25.06–41.9858.35–75.26
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction335653987safe268–402586–719854–1121safer249–420569–737818–1157
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction67.2585.77safe63.22–71.2881.44–90.09safer61.93–72.5780.13–91.40
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2110.2721.48safe8.37–14.057.33–13.2215.70–27.26safer7.62–14.806.58–13.9714.20–28.77
Offsides
59%
18%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.661.684.35safe1.50–3.820.59–2.772.09–6.60safer1.20–4.130.30–3.061.50–7.19
Yellow cards
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.553.55safe0.95–3.050.42–2.681.37–5.73safer0.68–3.310.13–2.970.81–6.29
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.380.00–0.79
GK saves
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.102.226.32safe2.66–5.530.66–3.783.32–9.31safer2.27–5.920.24–4.202.51–10.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.94 0.00–1.91 0.00–2.16 | 2.28 1.42–3.13 1.19–3.36 | 3.22 1.39–5.04 0.91–5.52 | 14% 18% 67% |
| Shots on target | 3.30 1.44–5.17 0.95–5.66 | 7.02 5.27–8.76 4.81–9.22 | 10.32 6.71–13.92 5.76–14.88 | 84% |
| Total shots | 10.50 6.57–14.42 5.48–15.51 | 18.99 15.42–22.55 14.46–23.51 | 29.48 22.00–36.97 19.95–39.02 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 6.09 3.15–9.03 2.32–9.86 | 12.88 10.20–15.56 9.46–16.29 | 18.97 13.34–24.59 11.78–26.16 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 2.90 1.02–4.79 0.48–5.33 | 5.76 4.10–7.41 3.61–7.90 | 8.66 5.12–12.19 4.09–13.23 | 79% |
| Corners | 3.85 1.63–6.06 1.06–6.63 | 6.27 4.27–8.27 3.74–8.81 | 10.12 5.90–14.33 4.80–15.44 | 18% 73% |
| Possession % | 33.52 26.73–40.31 25.06–41.98 | 66.80 60.02–73.59 58.35–75.26 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 335 268–402 249–420 | 653 586–719 569–737 | 987 854–1121 818–1157 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.25 63.22–71.28 61.93–72.57 | 85.77 81.44–90.09 80.13–91.40 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 11.21 8.37–14.05 7.62–14.80 | 10.27 7.33–13.22 6.58–13.97 | 21.48 15.70–27.26 14.20–28.77 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.66 1.50–3.82 1.20–4.13 | 1.68 0.59–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 4.35 2.09–6.60 1.50–7.19 | 59% 18% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.31 | 1.55 0.42–2.68 0.13–2.97 | 3.55 1.37–5.73 0.81–6.29 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 4.10 2.66–5.53 2.27–5.92 | 2.22 0.66–3.78 0.24–4.20 | 6.32 3.32–9.31 2.51–10.12 | 71% 17% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.