Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.322.80safe0.51–2.450.47–2.170.98–4.62safer0.26–2.700.24–2.400.50–5.10
Shots on target
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.874.189.04safe3.00–6.732.44–5.925.44–12.65safer2.51–7.221.97–6.394.48–13.60
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6912.3127.01safe10.77–18.628.75–15.8819.52–34.49safer9.68–19.717.79–16.8417.47–36.54
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.528.3617.88safe6.58–12.465.68–11.0412.26–23.51safer5.75–13.294.94–11.7810.69–25.07
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.507.67safe2.29–6.051.85–5.164.14–11.21safer1.74–6.601.36–5.653.10–12.24
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.149.88safe3.53–7.962.14–6.145.67–14.10safer2.96–8.531.61–6.674.56–15.20
Possession %
82%
16%
homeawayprediction58.4142.25safe51.62–65.2035.46–49.03safer49.95–66.8733.79–50.70
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction515368883safe448–583301–434750–1017safer430–601284–452714–1053
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction75.0871.22safe71.05–79.1166.90–75.55safer69.76–80.4165.59–76.86
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4013.1725.57safe9.56–15.2310.23–16.1219.79–31.35safer8.80–15.999.48–16.8718.28–32.86
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.953.61safe0.50–2.820.85–3.041.35–5.86safer0.20–3.120.57–3.330.76–6.45
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.484.51safe0.98–3.081.35–3.612.33–6.69safer0.71–3.341.06–3.901.77–7.25
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.246.10safe1.43–4.301.68–4.793.11–9.10safer1.04–4.691.26–5.222.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 1.32 0.47–2.17 0.24–2.40 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.00–6.73 2.51–7.22 | 4.18 2.44–5.92 1.97–6.39 | 9.04 5.44–12.65 4.48–13.60 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.69 10.77–18.62 9.68–19.71 | 12.31 8.75–15.88 7.79–16.84 | 27.01 19.52–34.49 17.47–36.54 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.52 6.58–12.46 5.75–13.29 | 8.36 5.68–11.04 4.94–11.78 | 17.88 12.26–23.51 10.69–25.07 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.05 1.74–6.60 | 3.50 1.85–5.16 1.36–5.65 | 7.67 4.14–11.21 3.10–12.24 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.96 2.96–8.53 | 4.14 2.14–6.14 1.61–6.67 | 9.88 5.67–14.10 4.56–15.20 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 58.41 51.62–65.20 49.95–66.87 | 42.25 35.46–49.03 33.79–50.70 | — | 82% 16% |
| Passes | 515 448–583 430–601 | 368 301–434 284–452 | 883 750–1017 714–1053 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.08 71.05–79.11 69.76–80.41 | 71.22 66.90–75.55 65.59–76.86 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 12.40 9.56–15.23 8.80–15.99 | 13.17 10.23–16.12 9.48–16.87 | 25.57 19.79–31.35 18.28–32.86 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.95 0.85–3.04 0.57–3.33 | 3.61 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.45 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.34 | 2.48 1.35–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 4.51 2.33–6.69 1.77–7.25 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 3.24 1.68–4.79 1.26–5.22 | 6.10 3.11–9.10 2.30–9.91 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+