Premier League·Regular Season - 18·
Premier League·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.512.85safe0.37–2.310.66–2.371.03–4.68safer0.12–2.560.43–2.600.55–5.16
Shots on target
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.235.019.24safe2.37–6.093.26–6.755.63–12.84safer1.88–6.582.80–7.224.68–13.80
Total shots
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3914.0226.41safe8.46–16.3110.46–17.5818.92–33.90safer7.37–17.409.50–18.5416.87–35.95
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.039.6217.65safe5.09–10.976.94–12.3012.03–23.27safer4.26–11.806.20–13.0410.46–24.84
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.236.85safe1.73–5.501.58–4.883.31–10.38safer1.19–6.041.08–5.382.28–11.42
Corners
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.999.85safe2.64–7.072.99–6.995.63–14.06safer2.07–7.642.46–7.524.52–15.17
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction48.3352.76safe41.54–55.1245.98–59.55safer39.87–56.7944.31–61.22
Passes
37%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction436474909safe368–503407–540776–1043safer350–521390–558740–1079
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction70.3874.71safe66.35–74.4170.38–79.03safer65.05–75.7069.08–80.34
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2412.3122.56safe7.41–13.089.37–15.2616.77–28.34safer6.65–13.848.62–16.0015.27–29.84
Offsides
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.175.36safe1.02–3.342.08–4.273.10–7.61safer0.72–3.651.79–4.562.51–8.20
Yellow cards
26%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.414.08safe0.62–2.721.28–3.541.90–6.26safer0.36–2.990.99–3.831.35–6.82
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.302.876.17safe1.87–4.741.31–4.423.18–9.16safer1.48–5.130.89–4.852.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.51 0.66–2.37 0.43–2.60 | 2.85 1.03–4.68 0.55–5.16 | 34% 25% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.23 2.37–6.09 1.88–6.58 | 5.01 3.26–6.75 2.80–7.22 | 9.24 5.63–12.84 4.68–13.80 | 34% 53% |
| Total shots | 12.39 8.46–16.31 7.37–17.40 | 14.02 10.46–17.58 9.50–18.54 | 26.41 18.92–33.90 16.87–35.95 | 34% 59% |
| Shots in box | 8.03 5.09–10.97 4.26–11.80 | 9.62 6.94–12.30 6.20–13.04 | 17.65 12.03–23.27 10.46–24.84 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 1.73–5.50 1.19–6.04 | 3.23 1.58–4.88 1.08–5.38 | 6.85 3.31–10.38 2.28–11.42 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.64–7.07 2.07–7.64 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.46–7.52 | 9.85 5.63–14.06 4.52–15.17 | 42% 45% |
| Possession % | 48.33 41.54–55.12 39.87–56.79 | 52.76 45.98–59.55 44.31–61.22 | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 436 368–503 350–521 | 474 407–540 390–558 | 909 776–1043 740–1079 | 37% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.38 66.35–74.41 65.05–75.70 | 74.71 70.38–79.03 69.08–80.34 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 10.24 7.41–13.08 6.65–13.84 | 12.31 9.37–15.26 8.62–16.00 | 22.56 16.77–28.34 15.27–29.84 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.72–3.65 | 3.17 2.08–4.27 1.79–4.56 | 5.36 3.10–7.61 2.51–8.20 | 26% 16% 58% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.36–2.99 | 2.41 1.28–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.08 1.90–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 26% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.30 1.87–4.74 1.48–5.13 | 2.87 1.31–4.42 0.89–4.85 | 6.17 3.18–9.16 2.37–9.98 | 49% 16% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.