Premier League·Regular Season - 18·
Premier League·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.272.64safe0.40–2.330.42–2.130.82–4.46safer0.15–2.590.19–2.360.34–4.94
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.228.68safe2.59–6.322.48–5.965.07–12.28safer2.10–6.812.01–6.434.12–13.24
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9212.7426.65safe9.99–17.849.17–16.3019.16–34.14safer8.90–18.938.21–17.2617.11–36.19
Shots in box
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction8.008.5716.57safe5.06–10.945.89–11.2510.95–22.19safer4.23–11.775.15–11.999.38–23.76
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.544.017.55safe1.66–5.432.35–5.664.02–11.09safer1.12–5.971.86–6.152.98–12.12
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.544.5710.11safe3.32–7.752.57–6.575.90–14.32safer2.75–8.322.04–7.114.79–15.43
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.0949.42safe43.30–56.8842.63–56.20safer41.63–58.5540.96–57.88
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction464455919safe397–531388–521785–1052safer378–549371–539749–1088
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction65.8871.86safe61.85–69.9167.53–76.18safer60.56–71.2066.22–77.49
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7411.3923.13safe8.90–14.588.44–14.3317.35–28.91safer8.15–15.337.69–15.0815.84–30.41
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.433.15safe0.56–2.880.33–2.520.89–5.40safer0.26–3.180.04–2.810.30–5.99
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.063.80safe0.69–2.790.93–3.191.62–5.97safer0.42–3.050.64–3.481.06–6.53
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.695.63safe1.50–4.381.13–4.242.64–8.62safer1.12–4.760.71–4.671.82–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.33 0.15–2.59 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.45 2.59–6.32 2.10–6.81 | 4.22 2.48–5.96 2.01–6.43 | 8.68 5.07–12.28 4.12–13.24 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.92 9.99–17.84 8.90–18.93 | 12.74 9.17–16.30 8.21–17.26 | 26.65 19.16–34.14 17.11–36.19 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.06–10.94 4.23–11.77 | 8.57 5.89–11.25 5.15–11.99 | 16.57 10.95–22.19 9.38–23.76 | 40% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.43 1.12–5.97 | 4.01 2.35–5.66 1.86–6.15 | 7.55 4.02–11.09 2.98–12.12 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.32–7.75 2.75–8.32 | 4.57 2.57–6.57 2.04–7.11 | 10.11 5.90–14.32 4.79–15.43 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 50.09 43.30–56.88 41.63–58.55 | 49.42 42.63–56.20 40.96–57.88 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 464 397–531 378–549 | 455 388–521 371–539 | 919 785–1052 749–1088 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.88 61.85–69.91 60.56–71.20 | 71.86 67.53–76.18 66.22–77.49 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.90–14.58 8.15–15.33 | 11.39 8.44–14.33 7.69–15.08 | 23.13 17.35–28.91 15.84–30.41 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.26–3.18 | 1.43 0.33–2.52 0.04–2.81 | 3.15 0.89–5.40 0.30–5.99 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.42–3.05 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.80 1.62–5.97 1.06–6.53 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.50–4.38 1.12–4.76 | 2.69 1.13–4.24 0.71–4.67 | 5.63 2.64–8.62 1.82–9.43 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.