Premier League·Regular Season - 18·
Premier League·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
21%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.960.942.90safe0.99–2.930.08–1.791.08–4.72safer0.74–3.180.00–2.020.60–5.20
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.013.309.32safe4.15–7.881.56–5.055.71–12.92safer3.66–8.371.10–5.514.76–13.88
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction17.049.7326.77safe13.11–20.966.17–13.3019.28–34.26safer12.02–22.055.21–14.2617.23–36.31
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction11.566.8318.39safe8.62–14.514.15–9.5112.77–24.02safer7.79–15.343.41–10.2511.20–25.58
Blocked shots
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.253.328.57safe3.37–7.131.67–4.985.04–12.11safer2.82–7.681.18–5.474.00–13.14
Corners
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.593.8610.45safe4.37–8.801.86–5.866.23–14.66safer3.80–9.371.33–6.395.13–15.77
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction61.4138.43safe54.62–68.2031.65–45.22safer52.95–69.8729.98–46.89
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction562346908safe495–629280–413774–1042safer476–647262–430739–1077
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction77.0668.12safe73.03–81.0963.79–72.44safer71.74–82.3862.48–73.75
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0812.0923.17safe8.24–13.929.15–15.0417.39–28.95safer7.49–14.678.40–15.7815.88–30.46
Offsides
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.572.93safe0.19–2.520.48–2.660.67–5.18safer0.00–2.820.19–2.950.08–5.77
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.462.283.74safe0.41–2.511.15–3.411.56–5.92safer0.14–2.770.86–3.701.00–6.47
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.76
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.313.876.18safe0.88–3.752.31–5.423.19–9.17safer0.49–4.141.89–5.852.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.96 0.99–2.93 0.74–3.18 | 0.94 0.08–1.79 0.00–2.02 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 61% 21% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.01 4.15–7.88 3.66–8.37 | 3.30 1.56–5.05 1.10–5.51 | 9.32 5.71–12.92 4.76–13.88 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 17.04 13.11–20.96 12.02–22.05 | 9.73 6.17–13.30 5.21–14.26 | 26.77 19.28–34.26 17.23–36.31 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 11.56 8.62–14.51 7.79–15.34 | 6.83 4.15–9.51 3.41–10.25 | 18.39 12.77–24.02 11.20–25.58 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 5.25 3.37–7.13 2.82–7.68 | 3.32 1.67–4.98 1.18–5.47 | 8.57 5.04–12.11 4.00–13.14 | 69% 20% |
| Corners | 6.59 4.37–8.80 3.80–9.37 | 3.86 1.86–5.86 1.33–6.39 | 10.45 6.23–14.66 5.13–15.77 | 76% 16% |
| Possession % | 61.41 54.62–68.20 52.95–69.87 | 38.43 31.65–45.22 29.98–46.89 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 562 495–629 476–647 | 346 280–413 262–430 | 908 774–1042 739–1077 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.06 73.03–81.09 71.74–82.38 | 68.12 63.79–72.44 62.48–73.75 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.08 8.24–13.92 7.49–14.67 | 12.09 9.15–15.04 8.40–15.78 | 23.17 17.39–28.95 15.88–30.46 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.19–2.52 0.00–2.82 | 1.57 0.48–2.66 0.19–2.95 | 2.93 0.67–5.18 0.08–5.77 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.51 0.14–2.77 | 2.28 1.15–3.41 0.86–3.70 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.47 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.88–3.75 0.49–4.14 | 3.87 2.31–5.42 1.89–5.85 | 6.18 3.19–9.17 2.38–9.99 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.