Premier League·Regular Season - 18·
Premier League·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.302.64safe0.37–2.310.44–2.150.82–4.46safer0.12–2.560.21–2.380.34–4.94
Shots on target
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.134.708.83safe2.27–5.992.96–6.445.23–12.44safer1.78–6.482.49–6.914.27–13.39
Total shots
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4014.2626.66safe8.48–16.3310.69–17.8219.17–34.14safer7.38–17.429.73–18.7817.12–36.19
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.959.9917.94safe5.01–10.897.31–12.6812.32–23.57safer4.18–11.726.58–13.4110.75–25.13
Blocked shots
29%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.544.578.11safe1.66–5.422.92–6.234.58–11.65safer1.11–5.972.43–6.723.54–12.68
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.9710.05safe2.87–7.302.97–6.975.84–14.27safer2.30–7.872.44–7.504.73–15.37
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction52.5548.34safe45.76–59.3441.55–55.12safer44.09–61.0139.88–56.79
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction465391857safe398–532325–458723–990safer380–551307–475687–1026
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction69.6870.97safe65.66–73.7166.64–75.29safer64.36–75.0165.33–76.60
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6612.7723.43safe7.82–13.509.83–15.7217.65–29.21safer7.07–14.259.08–16.4616.15–30.72
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.803.60safe0.65–2.970.70–2.891.35–5.86safer0.35–3.270.42–3.180.76–6.45
Yellow cards
29%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.063.61safe0.50–2.600.93–3.191.43–5.79safer0.24–2.870.64–3.480.87–6.34
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.665.71safe1.61–4.481.11–4.222.72–8.70safer1.22–4.870.68–4.651.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–5.99 1.78–6.48 | 4.70 2.96–6.44 2.49–6.91 | 8.83 5.23–12.44 4.27–13.39 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.40 8.48–16.33 7.38–17.42 | 14.26 10.69–17.82 9.73–18.78 | 26.66 19.17–34.14 17.12–36.19 | 32% 60% |
| Shots in box | 7.95 5.01–10.89 4.18–11.72 | 9.99 7.31–12.68 6.58–13.41 | 17.94 12.32–23.57 10.75–25.13 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.42 1.11–5.97 | 4.57 2.92–6.23 2.43–6.72 | 8.11 4.58–11.65 3.54–12.68 | 29% 13% 57% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.87–7.30 2.30–7.87 | 4.97 2.97–6.97 2.44–7.50 | 10.05 5.84–14.27 4.73–15.37 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 52.55 45.76–59.34 44.09–61.01 | 48.34 41.55–55.12 39.88–56.79 | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 465 398–532 380–551 | 391 325–458 307–475 | 857 723–990 687–1026 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.68 65.66–73.71 64.36–75.01 | 70.97 66.64–75.29 65.33–76.60 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 10.66 7.82–13.50 7.07–14.25 | 12.77 9.83–15.72 9.08–16.46 | 23.43 17.65–29.21 16.15–30.72 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 1.80 0.70–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 3.60 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.45 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 3.61 1.43–5.79 0.87–6.34 | 29% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 2.66 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 5.71 2.72–8.70 1.91–9.52 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+