Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.272.64safe0.40–2.340.42–2.130.82–4.47safer0.15–2.590.19–2.360.34–4.95
Shots on target
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.148.84safe2.83–6.562.40–5.885.23–12.44safer2.34–7.051.93–6.354.28–13.40
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9511.9425.89safe10.02–17.878.38–15.5018.40–33.38safer8.93–18.977.42–16.4616.35–35.43
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.487.5816.06safe5.54–11.424.90–10.2610.43–21.68safer4.71–12.254.16–11.008.87–23.25
Blocked shots
44%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.386.90safe1.63–5.391.73–5.043.36–10.43safer1.09–5.941.24–5.532.32–11.47
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.619.93safe3.11–7.532.61–6.615.71–14.14safer2.53–8.112.07–7.144.60–15.25
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction48.0852.61safe41.29–54.8745.82–59.39safer39.62–56.5444.15–61.06
Passes
37%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction428466894safe361–495400–533761–1028safer343–514382–550725–1064
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction68.0272.83safe63.99–72.0568.50–77.15safer62.70–73.3467.20–78.46
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2912.1424.44safe9.45–15.139.20–15.0918.65–30.22safer8.70–15.898.45–15.8417.15–31.72
Offsides
68%
15%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.031.514.55safe1.87–4.190.42–2.612.29–6.80safer1.57–4.500.13–2.891.70–7.39
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.224.33safe1.05–3.151.09–3.352.15–6.50safer0.79–3.420.80–3.641.59–7.06
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.225.88safe1.22–4.091.67–4.782.89–8.87safer0.83–4.481.24–5.202.08–9.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.27 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.64 0.82–4.47 0.34–4.95 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.83–6.56 2.34–7.05 | 4.14 2.40–5.88 1.93–6.35 | 8.84 5.23–12.44 4.28–13.40 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.95 10.02–17.87 8.93–18.97 | 11.94 8.38–15.50 7.42–16.46 | 25.89 18.40–33.38 16.35–35.43 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.48 5.54–11.42 4.71–12.25 | 7.58 4.90–10.26 4.16–11.00 | 16.06 10.43–21.68 8.87–23.25 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.63–5.39 1.09–5.94 | 3.38 1.73–5.04 1.24–5.53 | 6.90 3.36–10.43 2.32–11.47 | 44% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.11–7.53 2.53–8.11 | 4.61 2.61–6.61 2.07–7.14 | 9.93 5.71–14.14 4.60–15.25 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.08 41.29–54.87 39.62–56.54 | 52.61 45.82–59.39 44.15–61.06 | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 428 361–495 343–514 | 466 400–533 382–550 | 894 761–1028 725–1064 | 37% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.02 63.99–72.05 62.70–73.34 | 72.83 68.50–77.15 67.20–78.46 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 12.29 9.45–15.13 8.70–15.89 | 12.14 9.20–15.09 8.45–15.84 | 24.44 18.65–30.22 17.15–31.72 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 3.03 1.87–4.19 1.57–4.50 | 1.51 0.42–2.61 0.13–2.89 | 4.55 2.29–6.80 1.70–7.39 | 68% 15% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.05–3.15 0.79–3.42 | 2.22 1.09–3.35 0.80–3.64 | 4.33 2.15–6.50 1.59–7.06 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.22 1.67–4.78 1.24–5.20 | 5.88 2.89–8.87 2.08–9.69 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.