Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.292.73safe0.48–2.410.43–2.140.91–4.55safer0.23–2.670.20–2.370.43–5.03
Shots on target
48%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.128.58safe2.60–6.322.38–5.874.98–12.19safer2.11–6.811.91–6.334.02–13.15
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1912.2126.40safe10.26–18.118.65–15.7718.91–33.88safer9.17–19.207.69–16.7316.86–35.94
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.397.8317.23safe6.45–12.335.15–10.5111.60–22.85safer5.62–13.164.42–11.2510.04–24.42
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.237.55safe2.44–6.201.57–4.884.01–11.08safer1.90–6.751.08–5.372.98–12.12
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.475.2510.73safe3.26–7.683.25–7.256.51–14.94safer2.68–8.262.72–7.795.40–16.05
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction49.2151.58safe42.42–56.0044.79–58.36safer40.75–57.6743.12–60.03
Passes
48%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction425430855safe358–492363–496721–988safer340–510346–514685–1024
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction66.1569.85safe62.12–70.1865.53–74.18safer60.83–71.4764.22–75.49
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9210.7821.70safe8.08–13.767.83–13.7215.91–27.48safer7.33–14.517.08–14.4714.41–28.98
Offsides
22%
20%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.293.64safe0.20–2.521.19–3.381.39–5.90safer0.00–2.820.91–3.670.80–6.49
Yellow cards
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.633.19safe0.51–2.610.50–2.761.01–5.37safer0.25–2.880.21–3.050.45–5.92
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.802.975.77safe1.36–4.241.41–4.532.78–8.76safer0.98–4.620.99–4.951.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.41 0.23–2.67 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 41% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.32 2.11–6.81 | 4.12 2.38–5.87 1.91–6.33 | 8.58 4.98–12.19 4.02–13.15 | 48% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.19 10.26–18.11 9.17–19.20 | 12.21 8.65–15.77 7.69–16.73 | 26.40 18.91–33.88 16.86–35.94 | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.39 6.45–12.33 5.62–13.16 | 7.83 5.15–10.51 4.42–11.25 | 17.23 11.60–22.85 10.04–24.42 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.44–6.20 1.90–6.75 | 3.23 1.57–4.88 1.08–5.37 | 7.55 4.01–11.08 2.98–12.12 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.47 3.26–7.68 2.68–8.26 | 5.25 3.25–7.25 2.72–7.79 | 10.73 6.51–14.94 5.40–16.05 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 49.21 42.42–56.00 40.75–57.67 | 51.58 44.79–58.36 43.12–60.03 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 425 358–492 340–510 | 430 363–496 346–514 | 855 721–988 685–1024 | 48% 51% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.15 62.12–70.18 60.83–71.47 | 69.85 65.53–74.18 64.22–75.49 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 10.92 8.08–13.76 7.33–14.51 | 10.78 7.83–13.72 7.08–14.47 | 21.70 15.91–27.48 14.41–28.98 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.20–2.52 0.00–2.82 | 2.29 1.19–3.38 0.91–3.67 | 3.64 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 22% 20% 58% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.25–2.88 | 1.63 0.50–2.76 0.21–3.05 | 3.19 1.01–5.37 0.45–5.92 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.36–4.24 0.98–4.62 | 2.97 1.41–4.53 0.99–4.95 | 5.77 2.78–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.