Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.533.19safe0.70–2.630.67–2.381.37–5.02safer0.44–2.880.45–2.610.89–5.49
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.294.7110.00safe3.43–7.152.96–6.456.39–13.60safer2.94–7.642.50–6.915.44–14.56
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9112.1128.01safe11.98–19.838.54–15.6720.53–35.50safer10.89–20.927.59–16.6318.47–37.55
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction10.388.4018.78safe7.44–13.325.72–11.0813.16–24.40safer6.61–14.154.98–11.8211.59–25.97
Blocked shots
55%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.493.658.14safe2.61–6.371.99–5.304.60–11.67safer2.07–6.921.50–5.793.57–12.71
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.784.5510.33safe3.57–7.992.55–6.556.11–14.54safer2.99–8.572.02–7.085.01–15.65
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.0846.08safe46.29–59.8739.30–52.87safer44.62–61.5437.63–54.54
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction499442940safe431–566375–508807–1074safer413–584358–526771–1110
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction76.0874.83safe72.05–80.1170.51–79.15safer70.76–81.4069.20–80.46
Fouls
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.299.5820.88safe8.45–14.136.64–12.5315.09–26.66safer7.70–14.895.89–13.2813.59–28.16
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.703.38safe0.52–2.840.61–2.801.13–5.63safer0.22–3.140.32–3.080.54–6.22
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.903.98safe1.03–3.130.77–3.031.80–6.16safer0.76–3.390.48–3.321.25–6.72
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.416.45safe1.61–4.481.85–4.963.46–9.44safer1.22–4.871.42–5.392.65–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.70–2.63 0.44–2.88 | 1.53 0.67–2.38 0.45–2.61 | 3.19 1.37–5.02 0.89–5.49 | 41% 23% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.29 3.43–7.15 2.94–7.64 | 4.71 2.96–6.45 2.50–6.91 | 10.00 6.39–13.60 5.44–14.56 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.91 11.98–19.83 10.89–20.92 | 12.11 8.54–15.67 7.59–16.63 | 28.01 20.53–35.50 18.47–37.55 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 10.38 7.44–13.32 6.61–14.15 | 8.40 5.72–11.08 4.98–11.82 | 18.78 13.16–24.40 11.59–25.97 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.49 2.61–6.37 2.07–6.92 | 3.65 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 8.14 4.60–11.67 3.57–12.71 | 55% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.78 3.57–7.99 2.99–8.57 | 4.55 2.55–6.55 2.02–7.08 | 10.33 6.11–14.54 5.01–15.65 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 53.08 46.29–59.87 44.62–61.54 | 46.08 39.30–52.87 37.63–54.54 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 499 431–566 413–584 | 442 375–508 358–526 | 940 807–1074 771–1110 | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.08 72.05–80.11 70.76–81.40 | 74.83 70.51–79.15 69.20–80.46 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 11.29 8.45–14.13 7.70–14.89 | 9.58 6.64–12.53 5.89–13.28 | 20.88 15.09–26.66 13.59–28.16 | 60% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.52–2.84 0.22–3.14 | 1.70 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.08 | 3.38 1.13–5.63 0.54–6.22 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 3.41 1.85–4.96 1.42–5.39 | 6.45 3.46–9.44 2.65–10.25 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.