Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.500.973.47safe1.53–3.470.12–1.821.65–5.29safer1.28–3.720.00–2.051.17–5.77
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.473.7710.23safe4.60–8.332.03–5.516.63–13.84safer4.11–8.821.56–5.985.67–14.79
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction18.469.8528.31safe14.53–22.386.29–13.4220.82–35.80safer13.44–23.475.33–14.3818.77–37.85
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction12.467.2019.66safe9.52–15.404.52–9.8814.04–25.28safer8.69–16.233.78–10.6212.47–26.85
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction4.992.297.28safe3.11–6.870.64–3.943.74–10.81safer2.56–7.410.14–4.432.71–11.85
Corners
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.643.8010.43safe4.42–8.851.80–5.806.22–14.65safer3.85–9.421.26–6.335.11–15.75
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.7439.61safe53.95–67.5332.82–46.39safer52.28–69.2031.15–48.06
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction596388985safe529–664322–455851–1119safer511–682305–472816–1154
Pass accuracy %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction81.4476.98safe77.41–85.4772.65–81.30safer76.12–86.7671.34–82.61
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3712.3323.71safe8.54–14.219.39–15.2817.93–29.49safer7.78–14.978.64–16.0316.42–30.99
Offsides
28%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.654.58safe0.77–3.091.56–3.752.33–6.84safer0.47–3.391.27–4.031.74–7.43
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.293.97safe0.62–2.721.17–3.421.79–6.15safer0.36–2.990.87–3.711.23–6.70
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.856.42safe1.14–4.012.29–5.403.43–9.41safer0.75–4.401.87–5.832.62–10.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.50 1.53–3.47 1.28–3.72 | 0.97 0.12–1.82 0.00–2.05 | 3.47 1.65–5.29 1.17–5.77 | 71% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.47 4.60–8.33 4.11–8.82 | 3.77 2.03–5.51 1.56–5.98 | 10.23 6.63–13.84 5.67–14.79 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 18.46 14.53–22.38 13.44–23.47 | 9.85 6.29–13.42 5.33–14.38 | 28.31 20.82–35.80 18.77–37.85 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 12.46 9.52–15.40 8.69–16.23 | 7.20 4.52–9.88 3.78–10.62 | 19.66 14.04–25.28 12.47–26.85 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.99 3.11–6.87 2.56–7.41 | 2.29 0.64–3.94 0.14–4.43 | 7.28 3.74–10.81 2.71–11.85 | 79% |
| Corners | 6.64 4.42–8.85 3.85–9.42 | 3.80 1.80–5.80 1.26–6.33 | 10.43 6.22–14.65 5.11–15.75 | 77% 15% |
| Possession % | 60.74 53.95–67.53 52.28–69.20 | 39.61 32.82–46.39 31.15–48.06 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 596 529–664 511–682 | 388 322–455 305–472 | 985 851–1119 816–1154 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.44 77.41–85.47 76.12–86.76 | 76.98 72.65–81.30 71.34–82.61 | — | 70% 26% |
| Fouls | 11.37 8.54–14.21 7.78–14.97 | 12.33 9.39–15.28 8.64–16.03 | 23.71 17.93–29.49 16.42–30.99 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.39 | 2.65 1.56–3.75 1.27–4.03 | 4.58 2.33–6.84 1.74–7.43 | 28% 18% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.36–2.99 | 2.29 1.17–3.42 0.87–3.71 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.23–6.70 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.85 2.29–5.40 1.87–5.83 | 6.42 3.43–9.41 2.62–10.22 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+