Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.212.69safe0.51–2.440.36–2.070.87–4.51safer0.26–2.700.13–2.290.39–4.99
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.049.13safe3.23–6.962.29–5.785.53–12.74safer2.74–7.451.83–6.244.57–13.69
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4611.0626.52safe11.53–19.387.50–14.6219.03–34.01safer10.44–20.486.54–15.5816.98–36.06
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.657.6118.26safe7.71–13.594.93–10.2912.64–23.88safer6.88–14.424.19–11.0311.07–25.45
Blocked shots
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.792.947.73safe2.91–6.671.29–4.604.20–11.27safer2.36–7.210.80–5.093.16–12.30
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.654.3610.01safe3.44–7.862.36–6.365.80–14.22safer2.86–8.441.82–6.894.69–15.33
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.2253.75safe39.42–53.0146.97–60.54safer37.76–54.6845.29–62.21
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction407485892safe340–474418–551758–1026safer322–492401–569723–1061
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction68.9673.20safe64.93–72.9968.87–77.52safer63.63–74.2867.56–78.83
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3010.4621.75safe8.46–14.147.51–13.4015.97–27.54safer7.70–14.896.76–14.1514.47–29.04
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.703.98safe1.11–3.430.61–2.801.72–6.23safer0.81–3.730.32–3.081.13–6.82
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.953.54safe0.55–2.650.82–3.081.36–5.72safer0.28–2.910.53–3.370.81–6.28
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.526.04safe1.09–3.961.96–5.073.05–9.03safer0.70–4.351.54–5.502.24–9.84
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.26–2.70 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.29 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.10 3.23–6.96 2.74–7.45 | 4.04 2.29–5.78 1.83–6.24 | 9.13 5.53–12.74 4.57–13.69 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.46 11.53–19.38 10.44–20.48 | 11.06 7.50–14.62 6.54–15.58 | 26.52 19.03–34.01 16.98–36.06 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.65 7.71–13.59 6.88–14.42 | 7.61 4.93–10.29 4.19–11.03 | 18.26 12.64–23.88 11.07–25.45 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.79 2.91–6.67 2.36–7.21 | 2.94 1.29–4.60 0.80–5.09 | 7.73 4.20–11.27 3.16–12.30 | 69% 20% |
| Corners | 5.65 3.44–7.86 2.86–8.44 | 4.36 2.36–6.36 1.82–6.89 | 10.01 5.80–14.22 4.69–15.33 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 46.22 39.42–53.01 37.76–54.68 | 53.75 46.97–60.54 45.29–62.21 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 407 340–474 322–492 | 485 418–551 401–569 | 892 758–1026 723–1061 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.96 64.93–72.99 63.63–74.28 | 73.20 68.87–77.52 67.56–78.83 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 11.30 8.46–14.14 7.70–14.89 | 10.46 7.51–13.40 6.76–14.15 | 21.75 15.97–27.54 14.47–29.04 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 2.27 1.11–3.43 0.81–3.73 | 1.70 0.61–2.80 0.32–3.08 | 3.98 1.72–6.23 1.13–6.82 | 51% 20% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.65 0.28–2.91 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.54 1.36–5.72 0.81–6.28 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.09–3.96 0.70–4.35 | 3.52 1.96–5.07 1.54–5.50 | 6.04 3.05–9.03 2.24–9.84 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.