Premier League·Regular Season - 19·
Premier League·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
29%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.032.23safe0.23–2.170.18–1.890.41–4.06safer0.00–2.420.00–2.120.00–4.54
Shots on target
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.233.367.58safe2.36–6.091.61–5.103.98–11.19safer1.87–6.581.15–5.563.02–12.14
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0610.3624.42safe10.14–17.996.80–13.9216.93–31.91safer9.05–19.085.84–14.8814.88–33.96
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.056.4715.53safe6.11–11.993.79–9.159.90–21.15safer5.28–12.823.06–9.898.34–22.72
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.153.247.39safe2.27–6.031.59–4.903.86–10.93safer1.73–6.581.10–5.392.82–11.96
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.814.039.84safe3.60–8.022.03–6.035.63–14.06safer3.02–8.601.50–6.574.52–15.16
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction56.6642.55safe49.87–63.4535.77–49.34safer48.20–65.1234.10–51.01
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction482339821safe415–549272–405687–954safer397–567255–423651–990
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction70.0467.01safe66.01–74.0762.69–71.33safer64.72–75.3661.38–72.64
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7713.0223.78safe7.93–13.6110.07–15.9618.00–29.57safer7.17–14.369.32–16.7116.50–31.07
Offsides
53%
23%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.193.05safe0.70–3.020.10–2.290.80–5.30safer0.40–3.320.00–2.580.21–5.89
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.334.02safe0.64–2.741.20–3.461.84–6.20safer0.37–3.000.91–3.751.28–6.75
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
27%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.313.205.51safe0.88–3.751.64–4.762.52–8.51safer0.49–4.141.22–5.181.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.03 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.23 0.41–4.06 0.00–4.54 | 40% 29% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.23 2.36–6.09 1.87–6.58 | 3.36 1.61–5.10 1.15–5.56 | 7.58 3.98–11.19 3.02–12.14 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.06 10.14–17.99 9.05–19.08 | 10.36 6.80–13.92 5.84–14.88 | 24.42 16.93–31.91 14.88–33.96 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.05 6.11–11.99 5.28–12.82 | 6.47 3.79–9.15 3.06–9.89 | 15.53 9.90–21.15 8.34–22.72 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.15 2.27–6.03 1.73–6.58 | 3.24 1.59–4.90 1.10–5.39 | 7.39 3.86–10.93 2.82–11.96 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.81 3.60–8.02 3.02–8.60 | 4.03 2.03–6.03 1.50–6.57 | 9.84 5.63–14.06 4.52–15.16 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 56.66 49.87–63.45 48.20–65.12 | 42.55 35.77–49.34 34.10–51.01 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 482 415–549 397–567 | 339 272–405 255–423 | 821 687–954 651–990 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.04 66.01–74.07 64.72–75.36 | 67.01 62.69–71.33 61.38–72.64 | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 10.77 7.93–13.61 7.17–14.36 | 13.02 10.07–15.96 9.32–16.71 | 23.78 18.00–29.57 16.50–31.07 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.32 | 1.19 0.10–2.29 0.00–2.58 | 3.05 0.80–5.30 0.21–5.89 | 53% 23% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 2.33 1.20–3.46 0.91–3.75 | 4.02 1.84–6.20 1.28–6.75 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.88–3.75 0.49–4.14 | 3.20 1.64–4.76 1.22–5.18 | 5.51 2.52–8.51 1.71–9.32 | 27% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.