Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.502.72safe0.25–2.180.65–2.360.89–4.54safer0.00–2.440.42–2.580.41–5.02
Shots on target
39%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.204.558.75safe2.34–6.062.81–6.305.15–12.36safer1.85–6.552.34–6.764.19–13.32
Total shots
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3113.2326.53safe9.38–17.239.67–16.7919.05–34.02safer8.29–18.328.71–17.7517.00–36.07
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.999.2118.20safe6.05–11.936.53–11.9012.58–23.83safer5.22–12.765.80–12.6311.01–25.39
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.844.438.26safe1.95–5.722.77–6.084.73–11.80safer1.41–6.262.28–6.573.69–12.83
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.665.0310.70safe3.45–7.883.03–7.036.48–14.91safer2.88–8.452.50–7.575.38–16.02
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.4154.24safe38.62–52.2047.46–61.03safer36.95–53.8745.78–62.70
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction428522950safe361–495455–588816–1084safer343–514438–606780–1119
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction67.0973.14safe63.06–71.1268.82–77.46safer61.77–72.4167.51–78.77
Fouls
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9310.1021.03safe8.10–13.777.15–13.0415.25–26.81safer7.34–14.536.40–13.7913.74–28.32
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.363.04safe0.53–2.850.26–2.450.79–5.30safer0.23–3.150.00–2.740.20–5.89
Yellow cards
31%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.043.68safe0.59–2.690.91–3.171.50–5.86safer0.32–2.960.62–3.460.95–6.42
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
44%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.895.90safe1.58–4.451.34–4.452.91–8.90safer1.19–4.830.91–4.872.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 1.50 0.65–2.36 0.42–2.58 | 2.72 0.89–4.54 0.41–5.02 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.20 2.34–6.06 1.85–6.55 | 4.55 2.81–6.30 2.34–6.76 | 8.75 5.15–12.36 4.19–13.32 | 39% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.31 9.38–17.23 8.29–18.32 | 13.23 9.67–16.79 8.71–17.75 | 26.53 19.05–34.02 17.00–36.07 | 47% 45% |
| Shots in box | 8.99 6.05–11.93 5.22–12.76 | 9.21 6.53–11.90 5.80–12.63 | 18.20 12.58–23.83 11.01–25.39 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 1.95–5.72 1.41–6.26 | 4.43 2.77–6.08 2.28–6.57 | 8.26 4.73–11.80 3.69–12.83 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 5.66 3.45–7.88 2.88–8.45 | 5.03 3.03–7.03 2.50–7.57 | 10.70 6.48–14.91 5.38–16.02 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 45.41 38.62–52.20 36.95–53.87 | 54.24 47.46–61.03 45.78–62.70 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 428 361–495 343–514 | 522 455–588 438–606 | 950 816–1084 780–1119 | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.09 63.06–71.12 61.77–72.41 | 73.14 68.82–77.46 67.51–78.77 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 10.93 8.10–13.77 7.34–14.53 | 10.10 7.15–13.04 6.40–13.79 | 21.03 15.25–26.81 13.74–28.32 | 53% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.04 0.79–5.30 0.20–5.89 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.96 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.68 1.50–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 31% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.58–4.45 1.19–4.83 | 2.89 1.34–4.45 0.91–4.87 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 44% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.