Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.372.62safe0.28–2.220.52–2.230.80–4.44safer0.03–2.470.29–2.460.32–4.92
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.114.518.62safe2.25–5.972.77–6.255.02–12.23safer1.76–6.462.30–6.724.06–13.18
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8413.4526.30safe8.92–16.779.89–17.0218.81–33.78safer7.83–17.868.93–17.9816.76–35.83
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.618.5017.10safe5.67–11.555.82–11.1811.48–22.73safer4.84–12.385.08–11.929.91–24.29
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.544.187.72safe1.66–5.422.53–5.844.19–11.26safer1.11–5.962.04–6.333.15–12.29
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.125.1710.29safe2.91–7.333.17–7.176.07–14.50safer2.33–7.912.63–7.704.97–15.61
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction42.8357.57safe36.04–49.6250.79–64.36safer34.37–51.2949.12–66.03
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction388510898safe320–455444–577764–1032safer302–473426–594728–1067
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction65.0875.39safe61.05–69.1171.07–79.72safer59.76–70.4069.76–81.03
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1811.9223.11safe8.35–14.028.98–14.8717.33–28.89safer7.59–14.788.23–15.6215.82–30.40
Offsides
70%
16%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.781.213.99safe1.62–3.940.12–2.301.74–6.24safer1.32–4.240.00–2.591.15–6.83
Yellow cards
36%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.823.51safe0.64–2.740.69–2.951.33–5.69safer0.38–3.010.40–3.240.78–6.25
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.875.83safe1.53–4.401.31–4.422.84–8.82safer1.14–4.790.89–4.852.03–9.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.97 1.76–6.46 | 4.51 2.77–6.25 2.30–6.72 | 8.62 5.02–12.23 4.06–13.18 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.84 8.92–16.77 7.83–17.86 | 13.45 9.89–17.02 8.93–17.98 | 26.30 18.81–33.78 16.76–35.83 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 8.61 5.67–11.55 4.84–12.38 | 8.50 5.82–11.18 5.08–11.92 | 17.10 11.48–22.73 9.91–24.29 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.42 1.11–5.96 | 4.18 2.53–5.84 2.04–6.33 | 7.72 4.19–11.26 3.15–12.29 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.91–7.33 2.33–7.91 | 5.17 3.17–7.17 2.63–7.70 | 10.29 6.07–14.50 4.97–15.61 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 42.83 36.04–49.62 34.37–51.29 | 57.57 50.79–64.36 49.12–66.03 | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 388 320–455 302–473 | 510 444–577 426–594 | 898 764–1032 728–1067 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.08 61.05–69.11 59.76–70.40 | 75.39 71.07–79.72 69.76–81.03 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 11.18 8.35–14.02 7.59–14.78 | 11.92 8.98–14.87 8.23–15.62 | 23.11 17.33–28.89 15.82–30.40 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.78 1.62–3.94 1.32–4.24 | 1.21 0.12–2.30 0.00–2.59 | 3.99 1.74–6.24 1.15–6.83 | 70% 16% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.38–3.01 | 1.82 0.69–2.95 0.40–3.24 | 3.51 1.33–5.69 0.78–6.25 | 36% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.53–4.40 1.14–4.79 | 2.87 1.31–4.42 0.89–4.85 | 5.83 2.84–8.82 2.03–9.63 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+