Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
20%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction0.992.073.06safe0.02–1.951.22–2.931.24–4.88safer0.00–2.200.99–3.160.76–5.36
Shots on target
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction3.426.089.50safe1.55–5.284.34–7.825.89–13.10safer1.06–5.773.87–8.294.94–14.06
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1617.0128.17safe7.24–15.0913.44–20.5720.68–35.66safer6.15–16.1812.49–21.5318.63–37.71
Shots in box
13%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction7.0411.2618.30safe4.10–9.988.58–13.9412.68–23.92safer3.27–10.817.84–14.6811.11–25.49
Blocked shots
19%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.874.777.64safe0.99–4.753.12–6.434.11–11.18safer0.44–5.292.63–6.923.07–12.21
Corners
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.956.1510.09safe1.73–6.164.15–8.155.88–14.31safer1.16–6.733.61–8.684.77–15.41
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction32.1768.56safe25.38–38.9661.77–75.34safer23.71–40.6360.10–77.01
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction301641943safe234–369575–708809–1077safer216–387557–725773–1112
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction64.4384.09safe60.40–68.4679.76–88.41safer59.11–69.7578.45–89.72
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4411.0022.44safe8.60–14.288.06–13.9516.66–28.22safer7.84–15.037.31–14.6915.15–29.73
Offsides
53%
18%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.842.154.99safe1.68–4.001.06–3.242.74–7.24safer1.38–4.300.77–3.532.15–7.83
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.773.58safe0.76–2.860.64–2.901.40–5.76safer0.50–3.130.35–3.190.85–6.32
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
66%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.962.426.38safe2.52–5.390.86–3.983.38–9.37safer2.13–5.780.44–4.402.57–10.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 2.07 1.22–2.93 0.99–3.16 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 17% 20% 62% |
| Shots on target | 3.42 1.55–5.28 1.06–5.77 | 6.08 4.34–7.82 3.87–8.29 | 9.50 5.89–13.10 4.94–14.06 | 15% 76% |
| Total shots | 11.16 7.24–15.09 6.15–16.18 | 17.01 13.44–20.57 12.49–21.53 | 28.17 20.68–35.66 18.63–37.71 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 7.04 4.10–9.98 3.27–10.81 | 11.26 8.58–13.94 7.84–14.68 | 18.30 12.68–23.92 11.11–25.49 | 13% 81% |
| Blocked shots | 2.87 0.99–4.75 0.44–5.29 | 4.77 3.12–6.43 2.63–6.92 | 7.64 4.11–11.18 3.07–12.21 | 19% 69% |
| Corners | 3.95 1.73–6.16 1.16–6.73 | 6.15 4.15–8.15 3.61–8.68 | 10.09 5.88–14.31 4.77–15.41 | 20% 70% |
| Possession % | 32.17 25.38–38.96 23.71–40.63 | 68.56 61.77–75.34 60.10–77.01 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 301 234–369 216–387 | 641 575–708 557–725 | 943 809–1077 773–1112 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.43 60.40–68.46 59.11–69.75 | 84.09 79.76–88.41 78.45–89.72 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.60–14.28 7.84–15.03 | 11.00 8.06–13.95 7.31–14.69 | 22.44 16.66–28.22 15.15–29.73 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.84 1.68–4.00 1.38–4.30 | 2.15 1.06–3.24 0.77–3.53 | 4.99 2.74–7.24 2.15–7.83 | 53% 18% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.50–3.13 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.85–6.32 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.96 2.52–5.39 2.13–5.78 | 2.42 0.86–3.98 0.44–4.40 | 6.38 3.38–9.37 2.57–10.18 | 66% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.