Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
21%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.000.982.98safe1.03–2.960.13–1.841.16–4.80safer0.78–3.220.00–2.070.68–5.28
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.843.6310.47safe4.98–8.701.89–5.386.87–14.08safer4.49–9.191.42–5.845.91–15.03
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction19.9510.4330.38safe16.03–23.886.86–13.9922.89–37.86safer14.93–24.975.91–14.9520.84–39.92
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.976.9519.92safe10.03–15.914.27–9.6314.29–25.54safer9.20–16.743.53–10.3712.73–27.11
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.973.119.08safe4.09–7.861.46–4.765.55–12.62safer3.55–8.400.96–5.254.51–13.65
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction7.283.9111.20safe5.07–9.501.91–5.916.98–15.41safer4.50–10.071.38–6.455.88–16.52
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction56.3543.40safe49.56–63.1436.62–50.18safer47.89–64.8134.94–51.86
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction550406956safe483–617340–473822–1090safer465–635322–490787–1126
Pass accuracy %
72%
23%
homeawayprediction78.4573.35safe74.42–82.4869.02–77.67safer73.12–83.7767.71–78.98
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5510.8121.36safe7.71–13.397.86–13.7515.58–27.14safer6.96–14.147.11–14.5014.07–28.64
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.523.21safe0.53–2.850.43–2.620.96–5.47safer0.23–3.150.14–2.910.37–6.05
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.113.57safe0.40–2.500.99–3.241.39–5.75safer0.14–2.770.69–3.530.83–6.30
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.090.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76
GK saves
16%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction2.444.546.98safe1.00–3.882.98–6.093.99–9.97safer0.62–4.262.56–6.523.17–10.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.00 1.03–2.96 0.78–3.22 | 0.98 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.98 1.16–4.80 0.68–5.28 | 61% 21% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.84 4.98–8.70 4.49–9.19 | 3.63 1.89–5.38 1.42–5.84 | 10.47 6.87–14.08 5.91–15.03 | 80% |
| Total shots | 19.95 16.03–23.88 14.93–24.97 | 10.43 6.86–13.99 5.91–14.95 | 30.38 22.89–37.86 20.84–39.92 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 12.97 10.03–15.91 9.20–16.74 | 6.95 4.27–9.63 3.53–10.37 | 19.92 14.29–25.54 12.73–27.11 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 5.97 4.09–7.86 3.55–8.40 | 3.11 1.46–4.76 0.96–5.25 | 9.08 5.55–12.62 4.51–13.65 | 79% |
| Corners | 7.28 5.07–9.50 4.50–10.07 | 3.91 1.91–5.91 1.38–6.45 | 11.20 6.98–15.41 5.88–16.52 | 81% |
| Possession % | 56.35 49.56–63.14 47.89–64.81 | 43.40 36.62–50.18 34.94–51.86 | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 550 483–617 465–635 | 406 340–473 322–490 | 956 822–1090 787–1126 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.45 74.42–82.48 73.12–83.77 | 73.35 69.02–77.67 67.71–78.98 | — | 72% 23% |
| Fouls | 10.55 7.71–13.39 6.96–14.14 | 10.81 7.86–13.75 7.11–14.50 | 21.36 15.58–27.14 14.07–28.64 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.52 0.43–2.62 0.14–2.91 | 3.21 0.96–5.47 0.37–6.05 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.14–2.77 | 2.11 0.99–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 3.57 1.39–5.75 0.83–6.30 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.00–3.88 0.62–4.26 | 4.54 2.98–6.09 2.56–6.52 | 6.98 3.99–9.97 3.17–10.78 | 16% 73% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+