Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
28%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.350.932.28safe0.38–2.320.08–1.790.46–4.10safer0.13–2.570.00–2.020.00–4.58
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.023.208.23safe3.16–6.891.46–4.954.62–11.83safer2.67–7.380.99–5.413.67–12.79
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction15.699.6525.34safe11.77–19.626.09–13.2117.85–32.83safer10.67–20.715.13–14.1715.80–34.88
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction9.906.2816.18safe6.96–12.843.60–8.9610.56–21.81safer6.13–13.672.86–9.708.99–23.37
Blocked shots
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.942.917.85safe3.06–6.821.26–4.564.32–11.39safer2.52–7.370.77–5.063.28–12.42
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.163.679.83safe3.95–8.381.67–5.675.62–14.05safer3.38–8.951.14–6.204.51–15.15
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction58.7140.19safe51.92–65.5033.41–46.98safer50.25–67.1731.74–48.65
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction516323839safe449–583257–390705–973safer430–601239–407670–1008
Pass accuracy %
69%
26%
homeawayprediction70.4866.10safe66.45–74.5161.77–70.42safer65.16–75.8060.46–71.73
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6111.4722.07safe7.77–13.448.52–14.4116.29–27.86safer7.01–14.207.77–15.1614.79–29.36
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.713.61safe0.74–3.070.61–2.801.36–5.87safer0.44–3.370.33–3.090.77–6.46
Yellow cards
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.233.69safe0.40–2.501.10–3.361.51–5.86safer0.14–2.770.81–3.650.95–6.42
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78
GK saves
23%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.243.445.69safe0.81–3.681.89–5.002.69–8.68safer0.42–4.071.46–5.421.88–9.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 0.93 0.08–1.79 0.00–2.02 | 2.28 0.46–4.10 0.00–4.58 | 46% 28% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.02 3.16–6.89 2.67–7.38 | 3.20 1.46–4.95 0.99–5.41 | 8.23 4.62–11.83 3.67–12.79 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.69 11.77–19.62 10.67–20.71 | 9.65 6.09–13.21 5.13–14.17 | 25.34 17.85–32.83 15.80–34.88 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 9.90 6.96–12.84 6.13–13.67 | 6.28 3.60–8.96 2.86–9.70 | 16.18 10.56–21.81 8.99–23.37 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.94 3.06–6.82 2.52–7.37 | 2.91 1.26–4.56 0.77–5.06 | 7.85 4.32–11.39 3.28–12.42 | 71% 18% |
| Corners | 6.16 3.95–8.38 3.38–8.95 | 3.67 1.67–5.67 1.14–6.20 | 9.83 5.62–14.05 4.51–15.15 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 58.71 51.92–65.50 50.25–67.17 | 40.19 33.41–46.98 31.74–48.65 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 516 449–583 430–601 | 323 257–390 239–407 | 839 705–973 670–1008 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.48 66.45–74.51 65.16–75.80 | 66.10 61.77–70.42 60.46–71.73 | — | 69% 26% |
| Fouls | 10.61 7.77–13.44 7.01–14.20 | 11.47 8.52–14.41 7.77–15.16 | 22.07 16.29–27.86 14.79–29.36 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.74–3.07 0.44–3.37 | 1.71 0.61–2.80 0.33–3.09 | 3.61 1.36–5.87 0.77–6.46 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.45 0.40–2.50 0.14–2.77 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 3.69 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.24 0.81–3.68 0.42–4.07 | 3.44 1.89–5.00 1.46–5.42 | 5.69 2.69–8.68 1.88–9.49 | 23% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.