Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
26%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.452.44safe0.02–1.960.60–2.300.62–4.26safer0.00–2.210.37–2.530.14–4.74
Shots on target
26%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.464.768.21safe1.59–5.323.01–6.504.61–11.82safer1.10–5.812.55–6.973.65–12.77
Total shots
23%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3514.6025.96safe7.43–15.2811.04–18.1618.47–33.44safer6.34–16.3710.08–19.1216.42–35.49
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.149.1016.24safe4.20–10.086.42–11.7810.62–21.86safer3.37–10.915.68–12.529.05–23.43
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.294.057.35safe1.41–5.182.40–5.713.81–10.88safer0.87–5.721.91–6.202.78–11.92
Corners
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.595.4410.03safe2.38–6.813.44–7.445.82–14.25safer1.81–7.382.91–7.974.71–15.36
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction40.9759.67safe34.18–47.7652.89–66.46safer32.51–49.4351.22–68.13
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction347518865safe280–414452–584731–998safer261–432434–602695–1034
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction65.1075.73safe61.07–69.1371.41–80.05safer59.78–70.4270.10–81.36
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9412.6823.61safe8.10–13.789.73–15.6217.83–29.40safer7.34–14.538.98–16.3716.33–30.90
Offsides
59%
19%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.351.363.71safe1.19–3.510.27–2.461.46–5.97safer0.89–3.810.00–2.740.87–6.56
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.184.06safe0.82–2.921.05–3.311.88–6.23safer0.56–3.190.76–3.601.32–6.79
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
52%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.172.545.71safe1.73–4.610.98–4.092.71–8.70safer1.35–4.990.55–4.521.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.45 0.60–2.30 0.37–2.53 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 26% 26% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.46 1.59–5.32 1.10–5.81 | 4.76 3.01–6.50 2.55–6.97 | 8.21 4.61–11.82 3.65–12.77 | 26% 61% |
| Total shots | 11.35 7.43–15.28 6.34–16.37 | 14.60 11.04–18.16 10.08–19.12 | 25.96 18.47–33.44 16.42–35.49 | 23% 71% |
| Shots in box | 7.14 4.20–10.08 3.37–10.91 | 9.10 6.42–11.78 5.68–12.52 | 16.24 10.62–21.86 9.05–23.43 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.29 1.41–5.18 0.87–5.72 | 4.05 2.40–5.71 1.91–6.20 | 7.35 3.81–10.88 2.78–11.92 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Corners | 4.59 2.38–6.81 1.81–7.38 | 5.44 3.44–7.44 2.91–7.97 | 10.03 5.82–14.25 4.71–15.36 | 33% 54% |
| Possession % | 40.97 34.18–47.76 32.51–49.43 | 59.67 52.89–66.46 51.22–68.13 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 347 280–414 261–432 | 518 452–584 434–602 | 865 731–998 695–1034 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.10 61.07–69.13 59.78–70.42 | 75.73 71.41–80.05 70.10–81.36 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 10.94 8.10–13.78 7.34–14.53 | 12.68 9.73–15.62 8.98–16.37 | 23.61 17.83–29.40 16.33–30.90 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 2.35 1.19–3.51 0.89–3.81 | 1.36 0.27–2.46 0.00–2.74 | 3.71 1.46–5.97 0.87–6.56 | 59% 19% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.56–3.19 | 2.18 1.05–3.31 0.76–3.60 | 4.06 1.88–6.23 1.32–6.79 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.17 1.73–4.61 1.35–4.99 | 2.54 0.98–4.09 0.55–4.52 | 5.71 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 52% 17% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.