Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.272.83safe0.60–2.530.41–2.121.01–4.66safer0.35–2.780.18–2.350.53–5.14
Shots on target
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.639.72safe3.23–6.952.89–6.376.12–13.33safer2.74–7.442.42–6.845.16–14.28
Total shots
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7612.9026.65safe9.83–17.689.34–16.4619.17–34.14safer8.74–18.778.38–17.4217.11–36.19
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.368.7218.08safe6.41–12.306.04–11.4112.46–23.70safer5.58–13.135.31–12.1410.89–25.27
Blocked shots
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.103.867.96safe2.22–5.982.21–5.524.43–11.50safer1.67–6.521.72–6.013.39–12.53
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.439.70safe3.06–7.482.43–6.435.49–13.91safer2.48–8.061.90–6.964.38–15.02
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction51.6450.22safe44.85–58.4343.44–57.01safer43.18–60.1041.77–58.68
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction492471963safe425–559405–537829–1096safer406–577387–555793–1132
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction74.3774.97safe70.34–78.4070.65–79.30safer69.05–79.6969.34–80.61
Fouls
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5511.7321.28safe6.71–12.398.79–14.6715.50–27.06safer5.96–13.148.04–15.4213.99–28.57
Offsides
55%
19%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.421.654.07safe1.26–3.580.56–2.741.82–6.32safer0.96–3.880.27–3.031.23–6.91
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.203.74safe0.49–2.591.07–3.321.56–5.91safer0.22–2.860.78–3.621.00–6.47
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.386.50safe1.68–4.551.82–4.933.50–9.49safer1.29–4.941.40–5.362.69–10.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.53 0.35–2.78 | 1.27 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 2.83 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.09 3.23–6.95 2.74–7.44 | 4.63 2.89–6.37 2.42–6.84 | 9.72 6.12–13.33 5.16–14.28 | 49% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.76 9.83–17.68 8.74–18.77 | 12.90 9.34–16.46 8.38–17.42 | 26.65 19.17–34.14 17.11–36.19 | 53% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.36 6.41–12.30 5.58–13.13 | 8.72 6.04–11.41 5.31–12.14 | 18.08 12.46–23.70 10.89–25.27 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 4.10 2.22–5.98 1.67–6.52 | 3.86 2.21–5.52 1.72–6.01 | 7.96 4.43–11.50 3.39–12.53 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.06–7.48 2.48–8.06 | 4.43 2.43–6.43 1.90–6.96 | 9.70 5.49–13.91 4.38–15.02 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.64 44.85–58.43 43.18–60.10 | 50.22 43.44–57.01 41.77–58.68 | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 492 425–559 406–577 | 471 405–537 387–555 | 963 829–1096 793–1132 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.37 70.34–78.40 69.05–79.69 | 74.97 70.65–79.30 69.34–80.61 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 9.55 6.71–12.39 5.96–13.14 | 11.73 8.79–14.67 8.04–15.42 | 21.28 15.50–27.06 13.99–28.57 | 28% 64% |
| Offsides | 2.42 1.26–3.58 0.96–3.88 | 1.65 0.56–2.74 0.27–3.03 | 4.07 1.82–6.32 1.23–6.91 | 55% 19% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.86 | 2.20 1.07–3.32 0.78–3.62 | 3.74 1.56–5.91 1.00–6.47 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.12 1.68–4.55 1.29–4.94 | 3.38 1.82–4.93 1.40–5.36 | 6.50 3.50–9.49 2.69–10.30 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+