Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.262.48safe0.25–2.190.41–2.120.66–4.31safer0.00–2.440.18–2.350.18–4.79
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.263.928.18safe2.40–6.122.18–5.664.58–11.79safer1.91–6.611.71–6.133.62–12.74
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6411.8825.52safe9.72–17.578.32–15.4418.04–33.01safer8.63–18.667.36–16.4015.99–35.06
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.477.6416.11safe5.53–11.424.96–10.3210.49–21.74safer4.70–12.254.22–11.068.92–23.30
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.933.367.29safe2.04–5.811.71–5.013.75–10.82safer1.50–6.351.22–5.512.72–11.86
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.284.559.83safe3.07–7.492.55–6.555.62–14.04safer2.49–8.072.02–7.084.51–15.15
Possession %
40%
56%
homeawayprediction48.1851.65safe41.39–54.9744.87–58.44safer39.72–56.6443.20–60.11
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction402429830safe334–469362–495697–964safer316–487345–513661–1000
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction65.1570.87safe61.12–69.1866.54–75.19safer59.83–70.4765.23–76.50
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2011.7624.97safe10.37–16.048.82–14.7119.18–30.75safer9.61–16.808.07–15.4617.68–32.25
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.983.59safe0.46–2.780.88–3.071.34–5.85safer0.16–3.080.59–3.360.75–6.44
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.194.23safe0.99–3.091.06–3.322.06–6.41safer0.73–3.360.77–3.611.50–6.97
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.935.57safe1.21–4.081.37–4.482.58–8.56safer0.82–4.470.95–4.911.76–9.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 2.48 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 35% 27% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.40–6.12 1.91–6.61 | 3.92 2.18–5.66 1.71–6.13 | 8.18 4.58–11.79 3.62–12.74 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.64 9.72–17.57 8.63–18.66 | 11.88 8.32–15.44 7.36–16.40 | 25.52 18.04–33.01 15.99–35.06 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.47 5.53–11.42 4.70–12.25 | 7.64 4.96–10.32 4.22–11.06 | 16.11 10.49–21.74 8.92–23.30 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.04–5.81 1.50–6.35 | 3.36 1.71–5.01 1.22–5.51 | 7.29 3.75–10.82 2.72–11.86 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.28 3.07–7.49 2.49–8.07 | 4.55 2.55–6.55 2.02–7.08 | 9.83 5.62–14.04 4.51–15.15 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.18 41.39–54.97 39.72–56.64 | 51.65 44.87–58.44 43.20–60.11 | — | 40% 56% |
| Passes | 402 334–469 316–487 | 429 362–495 345–513 | 830 697–964 661–1000 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.15 61.12–69.18 59.83–70.47 | 70.87 66.54–75.19 65.23–76.50 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 13.20 10.37–16.04 9.61–16.80 | 11.76 8.82–14.71 8.07–15.46 | 24.97 19.18–30.75 17.68–32.25 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.98 0.88–3.07 0.59–3.36 | 3.59 1.34–5.85 0.75–6.44 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 0.99–3.09 0.73–3.36 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.23 2.06–6.41 1.50–6.97 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.21–4.08 0.82–4.47 | 2.93 1.37–4.48 0.95–4.91 | 5.57 2.58–8.56 1.76–9.37 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.