Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.142.81safe0.70–2.630.29–1.990.98–4.63safer0.45–2.890.06–2.220.50–5.11
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.189.50safe3.46–7.192.44–5.925.90–13.11safer2.97–7.681.97–6.394.94–14.07
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2511.6126.86safe11.33–19.188.05–15.1719.38–34.35safer10.24–20.277.09–16.1317.33–36.40
Shots in box
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction10.608.2318.83safe7.66–13.555.55–10.9113.21–24.46safer6.83–14.384.81–11.6511.64–26.02
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.502.697.19safe2.62–6.391.03–4.343.66–10.73safer2.08–6.930.54–4.832.62–11.76
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.214.2410.45safe3.99–8.422.24–6.246.24–14.66safer3.42–8.991.71–6.785.13–15.77
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.2544.57safe48.46–62.0437.78–51.35safer46.79–63.7136.11–53.02
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction510404914safe443–577338–470780–1048safer425–596320–488745–1083
Pass accuracy %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction74.9371.48safe70.90–78.9667.16–75.81safer69.61–80.2565.85–77.11
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1012.7823.88safe8.26–13.939.84–15.7318.10–29.66safer7.50–14.699.09–16.4816.59–31.17
Offsides
19%
17%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.864.42safe0.41–2.731.76–3.952.17–6.68safer0.11–3.031.47–4.241.58–7.27
Yellow cards
32%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.183.97safe0.74–2.841.06–3.311.79–6.15safer0.47–3.100.76–3.601.24–6.71
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.496.29safe1.36–4.231.94–5.053.30–9.28safer0.97–4.621.51–5.472.48–10.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.70–2.63 0.45–2.89 | 1.14 0.29–1.99 0.06–2.22 | 2.81 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.11 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.46–7.19 2.97–7.68 | 4.18 2.44–5.92 1.97–6.39 | 9.50 5.90–13.11 4.94–14.07 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.25 11.33–19.18 10.24–20.27 | 11.61 8.05–15.17 7.09–16.13 | 26.86 19.38–34.35 17.33–36.40 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 10.60 7.66–13.55 6.83–14.38 | 8.23 5.55–10.91 4.81–11.65 | 18.83 13.21–24.46 11.64–26.02 | 67% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.50 2.62–6.39 2.08–6.93 | 2.69 1.03–4.34 0.54–4.83 | 7.19 3.66–10.73 2.62–11.76 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.21 3.99–8.42 3.42–8.99 | 4.24 2.24–6.24 1.71–6.78 | 10.45 6.24–14.66 5.13–15.77 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 55.25 48.46–62.04 46.79–63.71 | 44.57 37.78–51.35 36.11–53.02 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 510 443–577 425–596 | 404 338–470 320–488 | 914 780–1048 745–1083 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.93 70.90–78.96 69.61–80.25 | 71.48 67.16–75.81 65.85–77.11 | — | 65% 31% |
| Fouls | 11.10 8.26–13.93 7.50–14.69 | 12.78 9.84–15.73 9.09–16.48 | 23.88 18.10–29.66 16.59–31.17 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 2.86 1.76–3.95 1.47–4.24 | 4.42 2.17–6.68 1.58–7.27 | 19% 17% 64% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.47–3.10 | 2.18 1.06–3.31 0.76–3.60 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 32% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.36–4.23 0.97–4.62 | 3.49 1.94–5.05 1.51–5.47 | 6.29 3.30–9.28 2.48–10.09 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.