Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.122.80safe0.71–2.640.27–1.980.98–4.62safer0.46–2.900.04–2.210.50–5.10
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.303.769.06safe3.44–7.162.02–5.515.46–12.67safer2.95–7.651.55–5.974.50–13.62
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1310.4425.57safe11.21–19.066.88–14.0018.08–33.06safer10.12–20.155.92–14.9616.03–35.11
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.787.0017.78safe7.84–13.734.32–9.6812.16–23.41safer7.01–14.553.58–10.4210.59–24.97
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.552.887.43safe2.67–6.431.23–4.533.89–10.96safer2.12–6.970.74–5.032.86–12.00
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.864.3210.18safe3.64–8.072.32–6.325.96–14.39safer3.07–8.641.79–6.854.86–15.50
Possession %
45%
51%
homeawayprediction49.4150.68safe42.62–56.2043.90–57.47safer40.95–57.8742.23–59.14
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction460487948safe393–528421–554814–1081safer375–546403–571778–1117
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction71.0372.95safe67.00–75.0668.62–77.27safer65.71–76.3567.31–78.58
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3911.2521.64safe7.55–13.238.30–14.1915.86–27.42safer6.80–13.987.56–14.9414.35–28.93
Offsides
63%
18%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.551.383.93safe1.39–3.710.29–2.471.68–6.19safer1.09–4.010.00–2.761.09–6.78
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.163.70safe0.49–2.591.03–3.291.53–5.88safer0.22–2.860.74–3.580.97–6.44
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.516.00safe1.06–3.931.95–5.063.01–9.00safer0.67–4.321.52–5.492.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.64 0.46–2.90 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.44–7.16 2.95–7.65 | 3.76 2.02–5.51 1.55–5.97 | 9.06 5.46–12.67 4.50–13.62 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.13 11.21–19.06 10.12–20.15 | 10.44 6.88–14.00 5.92–14.96 | 25.57 18.08–33.06 16.03–35.11 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.78 7.84–13.73 7.01–14.55 | 7.00 4.32–9.68 3.58–10.42 | 17.78 12.16–23.41 10.59–24.97 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.55 2.67–6.43 2.12–6.97 | 2.88 1.23–4.53 0.74–5.03 | 7.43 3.89–10.96 2.86–12.00 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 5.86 3.64–8.07 3.07–8.64 | 4.32 2.32–6.32 1.79–6.85 | 10.18 5.96–14.39 4.86–15.50 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 49.41 42.62–56.20 40.95–57.87 | 50.68 43.90–57.47 42.23–59.14 | — | 45% 51% |
| Passes | 460 393–528 375–546 | 487 421–554 403–571 | 948 814–1081 778–1117 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.03 67.00–75.06 65.71–76.35 | 72.95 68.62–77.27 67.31–78.58 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 10.39 7.55–13.23 6.80–13.98 | 11.25 8.30–14.19 7.56–14.94 | 21.64 15.86–27.42 14.35–28.93 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.55 1.39–3.71 1.09–4.01 | 1.38 0.29–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.93 1.68–6.19 1.09–6.78 | 63% 18% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.86 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 3.70 1.53–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.51 1.95–5.06 1.52–5.49 | 6.00 3.01–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.