Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.792.99safe0.23–2.160.94–2.651.17–4.81safer0.00–2.420.71–2.880.69–5.29
Shots on target
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.865.108.96safe2.00–5.733.35–6.845.35–12.56safer1.51–6.212.89–7.304.40–13.52
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9114.3527.26safe8.98–16.8310.79–17.9119.77–34.74safer7.89–17.929.83–18.8717.72–36.79
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction8.568.9917.55safe5.62–11.506.31–11.6711.92–23.17safer4.79–12.335.57–12.4110.36–24.74
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.124.328.44safe2.24–6.002.67–5.984.91–11.98safer1.69–6.542.18–6.473.87–13.01
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction5.005.4410.43safe2.78–7.213.44–7.446.22–14.65safer2.21–7.782.90–7.975.11–15.75
Possession %
23%
74%
homeawayprediction44.2955.95safe37.50–51.0849.16–62.73safer35.83–52.7547.49–64.40
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction405505910safe338–472439–572776–1044safer320–490421–589741–1079
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction66.3876.26safe62.35–70.4171.94–80.58safer61.06–71.7070.63–81.89
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction11.419.9021.31safe8.57–14.246.96–12.8515.53–27.09safer7.81–15.006.21–13.6014.02–28.60
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.923.54safe0.45–2.770.83–3.021.28–5.79safer0.15–3.070.54–3.310.69–6.38
Yellow cards
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.563.32safe0.71–2.810.43–2.691.14–5.50safer0.44–3.070.14–2.980.58–6.05
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.452.796.24safe2.01–4.891.24–4.353.25–9.24safer1.63–5.270.81–4.772.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.23–2.16 0.00–2.42 | 1.79 0.94–2.65 0.71–2.88 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.69–5.29 | 25% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 3.86 2.00–5.73 1.51–6.21 | 5.10 3.35–6.84 2.89–7.30 | 8.96 5.35–12.56 4.40–13.52 | 28% 60% |
| Total shots | 12.91 8.98–16.83 7.89–17.92 | 14.35 10.79–17.91 9.83–18.87 | 27.26 19.77–34.74 17.72–36.79 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 8.56 5.62–11.50 4.79–12.33 | 8.99 6.31–11.67 5.57–12.41 | 17.55 11.92–23.17 10.36–24.74 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 2.24–6.00 1.69–6.54 | 4.32 2.67–5.98 2.18–6.47 | 8.44 4.91–11.98 3.87–13.01 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 5.00 2.78–7.21 2.21–7.78 | 5.44 3.44–7.44 2.90–7.97 | 10.43 6.22–14.65 5.11–15.75 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 44.29 37.50–51.08 35.83–52.75 | 55.95 49.16–62.73 47.49–64.40 | — | 23% 74% |
| Passes | 405 338–472 320–490 | 505 439–572 421–589 | 910 776–1044 741–1079 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.38 62.35–70.41 61.06–71.70 | 76.26 71.94–80.58 70.63–81.89 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.41 8.57–14.24 7.81–15.00 | 9.90 6.96–12.85 6.21–13.60 | 21.31 15.53–27.09 14.02–28.60 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.92 0.83–3.02 0.54–3.31 | 3.54 1.28–5.79 0.69–6.38 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.07 | 1.56 0.43–2.69 0.14–2.98 | 3.32 1.14–5.50 0.58–6.05 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.45 2.01–4.89 1.63–5.27 | 2.79 1.24–4.35 0.81–4.77 | 6.24 3.25–9.24 2.44–10.05 | 52% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.