Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.072.72safe0.68–2.620.22–1.930.90–4.55safer0.43–2.870.00–2.160.42–5.03
Shots on target
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.724.088.80safe2.86–6.582.34–5.835.20–12.41safer2.37–7.071.88–6.294.24–13.36
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4711.8826.35safe10.54–18.398.32–15.4518.86–33.84safer9.45–19.487.36–16.4116.81–35.89
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.038.3817.41safe6.09–11.975.70–11.0711.79–23.04safer5.26–12.804.97–11.8010.22–24.60
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.973.297.26safe2.08–5.851.64–4.953.72–10.79safer1.54–6.391.15–5.442.69–11.83
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.784.2510.04safe3.57–8.002.25–6.255.82–14.25safer3.00–8.571.72–6.794.72–15.36
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction57.3843.06safe50.59–64.1736.28–49.85safer48.92–65.8434.61–51.52
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction524376900safe456–591310–443766–1033safer438–609292–460730–1069
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction72.5269.48safe68.49–76.5565.15–73.80safer67.20–77.8463.84–75.11
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5313.1823.71safe7.70–13.3710.23–16.1217.93–29.49safer6.94–14.139.48–16.8716.42–31.00
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.653.45safe0.63–2.950.56–2.751.19–5.70safer0.33–3.260.27–3.030.60–6.29
Yellow cards
29%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.454.30safe0.81–2.901.32–3.582.13–6.48safer0.54–3.171.03–3.871.57–7.04
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.783.115.89safe1.34–4.211.56–4.672.90–8.88safer0.95–4.601.13–5.092.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.62 0.43–2.87 | 1.07 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 51% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.86–6.58 2.37–7.07 | 4.08 2.34–5.83 1.88–6.29 | 8.80 5.20–12.41 4.24–13.36 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.47 10.54–18.39 9.45–19.48 | 11.88 8.32–15.45 7.36–16.41 | 26.35 18.86–33.84 16.81–35.89 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.03 6.09–11.97 5.26–12.80 | 8.38 5.70–11.07 4.97–11.80 | 17.41 11.79–23.04 10.22–24.60 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.08–5.85 1.54–6.39 | 3.29 1.64–4.95 1.15–5.44 | 7.26 3.72–10.79 2.69–11.83 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.78 3.57–8.00 3.00–8.57 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.72–6.79 | 10.04 5.82–14.25 4.72–15.36 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 57.38 50.59–64.17 48.92–65.84 | 43.06 36.28–49.85 34.61–51.52 | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 524 456–591 438–609 | 376 310–443 292–460 | 900 766–1033 730–1069 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.52 68.49–76.55 67.20–77.84 | 69.48 65.15–73.80 63.84–75.11 | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 10.53 7.70–13.37 6.94–14.13 | 13.18 10.23–16.12 9.48–16.87 | 23.71 17.93–29.49 16.42–31.00 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.33–3.26 | 1.65 0.56–2.75 0.27–3.03 | 3.45 1.19–5.70 0.60–6.29 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.90 0.54–3.17 | 2.45 1.32–3.58 1.03–3.87 | 4.30 2.13–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 29% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 3.11 1.56–4.67 1.13–5.09 | 5.89 2.90–8.88 2.09–9.70 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+