Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.342.64safe0.34–2.270.48–2.190.82–4.46safer0.08–2.520.26–2.420.34–4.94
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.473.908.37safe2.61–6.332.16–5.654.77–11.98safer2.12–6.821.70–6.113.81–12.94
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0111.5324.55safe9.09–16.947.97–15.1017.06–32.03safer8.00–18.037.01–16.0515.01–34.08
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.688.8517.53safe5.74–11.626.17–11.5311.91–23.15safer4.91–12.455.43–12.2710.34–24.72
Blocked shots
49%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.213.747.96safe2.33–6.102.09–5.404.42–11.49safer1.79–6.641.60–5.893.39–12.53
Corners
49%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.545.1210.66safe3.33–7.763.12–7.126.45–14.88safer2.76–8.332.59–7.655.34–15.98
Possession %
48%
48%
homeawayprediction50.0050.00safe43.21–56.7943.22–56.79safer41.54–58.4641.55–58.46
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction449436885safe382–516370–503751–1019safer363–534352–520716–1054
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction67.2870.13safe63.25–71.3165.80–74.45safer61.96–72.6064.49–75.76
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7511.1522.90safe8.91–14.588.20–14.0917.11–28.68safer8.15–15.347.46–14.8415.61–30.18
Offsides
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.354.24safe0.72–3.041.26–3.451.98–6.49safer0.42–3.350.97–3.741.40–7.08
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.873.44safe0.52–2.620.74–3.001.26–5.62safer0.25–2.880.45–3.290.70–6.18
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.12safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.055.72safe1.24–4.111.49–4.612.73–8.72safer0.85–4.501.07–5.031.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.34–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.26–2.42 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.47 2.61–6.33 2.12–6.82 | 3.90 2.16–5.65 1.70–6.11 | 8.37 4.77–11.98 3.81–12.94 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.01 9.09–16.94 8.00–18.03 | 11.53 7.97–15.10 7.01–16.05 | 24.55 17.06–32.03 15.01–34.08 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.68 5.74–11.62 4.91–12.45 | 8.85 6.17–11.53 5.43–12.27 | 17.53 11.91–23.15 10.34–24.72 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.33–6.10 1.79–6.64 | 3.74 2.09–5.40 1.60–5.89 | 7.96 4.42–11.49 3.39–12.53 | 49% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 5.54 3.33–7.76 2.76–8.33 | 5.12 3.12–7.12 2.59–7.65 | 10.66 6.45–14.88 5.34–15.98 | 49% 39% |
| Possession % | 50.00 43.21–56.79 41.54–58.46 | 50.00 43.22–56.79 41.55–58.46 | — | 48% 48% |
| Passes | 449 382–516 363–534 | 436 370–503 352–520 | 885 751–1019 716–1054 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.28 63.25–71.31 61.96–72.60 | 70.13 65.80–74.45 64.49–75.76 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.75 8.91–14.58 8.15–15.34 | 11.15 8.20–14.09 7.46–14.84 | 22.90 17.11–28.68 15.61–30.18 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.35 | 2.35 1.26–3.45 0.97–3.74 | 4.24 1.98–6.49 1.40–7.08 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.25–2.88 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.44 1.26–5.62 0.70–6.18 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.24–4.11 0.85–4.50 | 3.05 1.49–4.61 1.07–5.03 | 5.72 2.73–8.72 1.92–9.53 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.