Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.382.69safe0.34–2.280.53–2.240.87–4.52safer0.09–2.530.30–2.470.39–5.00
Shots on target
42%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.294.418.69safe2.42–6.152.66–6.155.09–12.30safer1.93–6.642.20–6.624.13–13.25
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2112.4025.61safe9.29–17.148.84–15.9618.12–33.10safer8.20–18.237.88–16.9216.07–35.15
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.848.7217.55safe5.89–11.786.04–11.4011.93–23.18safer5.06–12.615.30–12.1310.36–24.74
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.643.597.23safe1.76–5.521.93–5.243.69–10.76safer1.21–6.061.44–5.732.66–11.80
Corners
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.645.6010.24safe2.43–6.853.60–7.606.03–14.46safer1.85–7.433.07–8.134.92–15.56
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.5559.38safe34.76–48.3452.59–66.16safer33.09–50.0150.92–67.83
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction361504866safe294–429438–571732–999safer276–447420–588696–1035
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction63.2873.38safe59.25–67.3169.06–77.70safer57.96–68.6067.75–79.01
Fouls
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0210.4621.48safe8.18–13.867.51–13.4015.69–27.26safer7.43–14.616.76–14.1514.19–28.76
Offsides
20%
19%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.322.393.71safe0.16–2.481.30–3.481.46–5.97safer0.00–2.781.01–3.770.87–6.56
Yellow cards
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.523.26safe0.68–2.780.39–2.651.08–5.43safer0.42–3.050.10–2.940.52–5.99
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.775.64safe1.44–4.311.21–4.322.65–8.64safer1.05–4.700.78–4.751.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.38 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.47 | 2.69 0.87–4.52 0.39–5.00 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.42–6.15 1.93–6.64 | 4.41 2.66–6.15 2.20–6.62 | 8.69 5.09–12.30 4.13–13.25 | 42% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.21 9.29–17.14 8.20–18.23 | 12.40 8.84–15.96 7.88–16.92 | 25.61 18.12–33.10 16.07–35.15 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.89–11.78 5.06–12.61 | 8.72 6.04–11.40 5.30–12.13 | 17.55 11.93–23.18 10.36–24.74 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.76–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 3.59 1.93–5.24 1.44–5.73 | 7.23 3.69–10.76 2.66–11.80 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 4.64 2.43–6.85 1.85–7.43 | 5.60 3.60–7.60 3.07–8.13 | 10.24 6.03–14.46 4.92–15.56 | 32% 56% |
| Possession % | 41.55 34.76–48.34 33.09–50.01 | 59.38 52.59–66.16 50.92–67.83 | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 361 294–429 276–447 | 504 438–571 420–588 | 866 732–999 696–1035 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.28 59.25–67.31 57.96–68.60 | 73.38 69.06–77.70 67.75–79.01 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.02 8.18–13.86 7.43–14.61 | 10.46 7.51–13.40 6.76–14.15 | 21.48 15.69–27.26 14.19–28.76 | 50% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.32 0.16–2.48 0.00–2.78 | 2.39 1.30–3.48 1.01–3.77 | 3.71 1.46–5.97 0.87–6.56 | 20% 19% 61% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.78 0.42–3.05 | 1.52 0.39–2.65 0.10–2.94 | 3.26 1.08–5.43 0.52–5.99 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 2.77 1.21–4.32 0.78–4.75 | 5.64 2.65–8.64 1.84–9.45 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+