Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.243.11safe0.90–2.840.39–2.101.29–4.93safer0.65–3.090.16–2.330.81–5.41
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.564.169.72safe3.70–7.432.41–5.906.11–13.32safer3.21–7.921.95–6.365.16–14.28
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0110.7125.71safe11.08–18.937.14–14.2718.22–33.20safer9.99–20.026.18–15.2316.17–35.25
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.357.8017.15safe6.41–12.295.12–10.4811.53–22.77safer5.58–13.124.38–11.229.96–24.34
Blocked shots
69%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.472.627.09safe2.59–6.360.97–4.273.56–10.63safer2.05–6.900.48–4.772.52–11.67
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.019.81safe3.58–8.012.01–6.015.60–14.03safer3.01–8.591.48–6.554.49–15.13
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.9641.25safe52.17–65.7534.46–48.03safer50.50–67.4232.79–49.70
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction587386973safe520–654319–452839–1106safer502–673302–470803–1142
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction79.4675.84safe75.43–83.4971.51–80.16safer74.14–84.7870.21–81.47
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1611.4223.57safe9.32–14.998.47–14.3617.79–29.35safer8.56–15.757.72–15.1116.28–30.86
Offsides
16%
16%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.392.864.25safe0.23–2.551.77–3.952.00–6.50safer0.00–2.851.48–4.241.41–7.09
Yellow cards
36%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.063.90safe0.80–2.900.93–3.181.73–6.08safer0.53–3.160.64–3.481.17–6.64
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.12safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.426.10safe1.24–4.111.87–4.983.10–9.09safer0.85–4.501.44–5.402.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 0.90–2.84 0.65–3.09 | 1.24 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 3.11 1.29–4.93 0.81–5.41 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.56 3.70–7.43 3.21–7.92 | 4.16 2.41–5.90 1.95–6.36 | 9.72 6.11–13.32 5.16–14.28 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.01 11.08–18.93 9.99–20.02 | 10.71 7.14–14.27 6.18–15.23 | 25.71 18.22–33.20 16.17–35.25 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.35 6.41–12.29 5.58–13.12 | 7.80 5.12–10.48 4.38–11.22 | 17.15 11.53–22.77 9.96–24.34 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 2.59–6.36 2.05–6.90 | 2.62 0.97–4.27 0.48–4.77 | 7.09 3.56–10.63 2.52–11.67 | 69% 18% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.58–8.01 3.01–8.59 | 4.01 2.01–6.01 1.48–6.55 | 9.81 5.60–14.03 4.49–15.13 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 58.96 52.17–65.75 50.50–67.42 | 41.25 34.46–48.03 32.79–49.70 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 587 520–654 502–673 | 386 319–452 302–470 | 973 839–1106 803–1142 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.46 75.43–83.49 74.14–84.78 | 75.84 71.51–80.16 70.21–81.47 | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 12.16 9.32–14.99 8.56–15.75 | 11.42 8.47–14.36 7.72–15.11 | 23.57 17.79–29.35 16.28–30.86 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.39 0.23–2.55 0.00–2.85 | 2.86 1.77–3.95 1.48–4.24 | 4.25 2.00–6.50 1.41–7.09 | 16% 16% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.53–3.16 | 2.06 0.93–3.18 0.64–3.48 | 3.90 1.73–6.08 1.17–6.64 | 36% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.24–4.11 0.85–4.50 | 3.42 1.87–4.98 1.44–5.40 | 6.10 3.10–9.09 2.29–9.90 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.