Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.132.69safe0.59–2.520.27–1.980.86–4.51safer0.34–2.780.05–2.210.38–4.99
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.053.838.87safe3.18–6.912.08–5.575.27–12.48safer2.69–7.401.62–6.044.31–13.43
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4410.9826.43safe11.52–19.377.42–14.5518.94–33.91safer10.43–20.466.46–15.5116.89–35.96
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.748.1718.91safe7.79–13.685.49–10.8513.28–24.53safer6.96–14.514.75–11.5911.72–26.10
Blocked shots
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.733.267.99safe2.85–6.611.60–4.914.45–11.52safer2.30–7.161.11–5.403.41–12.56
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.354.1510.50safe4.14–8.572.15–6.156.29–14.72safer3.57–9.141.62–6.685.18–15.82
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction61.1738.53safe54.38–67.9631.75–45.32safer52.71–69.6330.08–46.99
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction527324851safe460–594258–391718–985safer442–613240–408682–1021
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction77.3768.13safe73.34–81.4063.81–72.46safer72.05–82.6962.50–73.77
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8412.8925.73safe10.00–15.689.94–15.8319.95–31.51safer9.25–16.449.19–16.5818.44–33.02
Offsides
27%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.893.25safe0.19–2.520.80–2.991.00–5.50safer0.00–2.820.51–3.280.41–6.09
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.524.26safe0.68–2.781.39–3.652.08–6.43safer0.42–3.051.10–3.941.52–6.99
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.405.91safe1.07–3.951.85–4.962.92–8.91safer0.69–4.331.42–5.382.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.52 0.34–2.78 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.05–2.21 | 2.69 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.18–6.91 2.69–7.40 | 3.83 2.08–5.57 1.62–6.04 | 8.87 5.27–12.48 4.31–13.43 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.44 11.52–19.37 10.43–20.46 | 10.98 7.42–14.55 6.46–15.51 | 26.43 18.94–33.91 16.89–35.96 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.74 7.79–13.68 6.96–14.51 | 8.17 5.49–10.85 4.75–11.59 | 18.91 13.28–24.53 11.72–26.10 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.73 2.85–6.61 2.30–7.16 | 3.26 1.60–4.91 1.11–5.40 | 7.99 4.45–11.52 3.41–12.56 | 63% 24% |
| Corners | 6.35 4.14–8.57 3.57–9.14 | 4.15 2.15–6.15 1.62–6.68 | 10.50 6.29–14.72 5.18–15.82 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 61.17 54.38–67.96 52.71–69.63 | 38.53 31.75–45.32 30.08–46.99 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 527 460–594 442–613 | 324 258–391 240–408 | 851 718–985 682–1021 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.37 73.34–81.40 72.05–82.69 | 68.13 63.81–72.46 62.50–73.77 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.84 10.00–15.68 9.25–16.44 | 12.89 9.94–15.83 9.19–16.58 | 25.73 19.95–31.51 18.44–33.02 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.35 0.19–2.52 0.00–2.82 | 1.89 0.80–2.99 0.51–3.28 | 3.25 1.00–5.50 0.41–6.09 | 27% 22% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.68–2.78 0.42–3.05 | 2.52 1.39–3.65 1.10–3.94 | 4.26 2.08–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.07–3.95 0.69–4.33 | 3.40 1.85–4.96 1.42–5.38 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+