Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.132.54safe0.44–2.380.28–1.990.72–4.36safer0.19–2.630.05–2.220.24–4.84
Shots on target
51%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.523.968.48safe2.66–6.392.21–5.704.87–12.08safer2.17–6.881.75–6.163.92–13.04
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4412.0726.51safe10.51–18.368.51–15.6319.02–33.99safer9.42–19.457.55–16.5916.97–36.04
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.608.4018.00safe6.66–12.545.72–11.0812.38–23.63safer5.83–13.374.98–11.8210.81–25.19
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.313.657.96safe2.43–6.192.00–5.304.42–11.49safer1.88–6.731.51–5.803.39–12.53
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.754.5610.31safe3.54–7.962.56–6.566.10–14.52safer2.96–8.542.03–7.094.99–15.63
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.3847.72safe44.59–58.1740.93–54.50safer42.92–59.8439.26–56.18
Passes
62%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction477441918safe410–544374–507784–1051safer391–562357–525748–1087
Pass accuracy %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction67.5169.57safe63.48–71.5465.25–73.89safer62.19–72.8363.94–75.20
Fouls
42%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3310.7421.07safe7.49–13.177.80–13.6915.29–26.86safer6.74–13.927.05–14.4413.79–28.36
Offsides
60%
19%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.421.383.80safe1.25–3.580.29–2.481.55–6.05safer0.95–3.880.00–2.770.96–6.64
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.803.21safe0.35–2.450.67–2.931.03–5.39safer0.09–2.720.38–3.220.47–5.94
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.712.915.62safe1.28–4.151.35–4.472.63–8.61safer0.89–4.530.93–4.891.82–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.13 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.24–4.84 | 43% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.52 2.66–6.39 2.17–6.88 | 3.96 2.21–5.70 1.75–6.16 | 8.48 4.87–12.08 3.92–13.04 | 51% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.44 10.51–18.36 9.42–19.45 | 12.07 8.51–15.63 7.55–16.59 | 26.51 19.02–33.99 16.97–36.04 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.60 6.66–12.54 5.83–13.37 | 8.40 5.72–11.08 4.98–11.82 | 18.00 12.38–23.63 10.81–25.19 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 2.43–6.19 1.88–6.73 | 3.65 2.00–5.30 1.51–5.80 | 7.96 4.42–11.49 3.39–12.53 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.75 3.54–7.96 2.96–8.54 | 4.56 2.56–6.56 2.03–7.09 | 10.31 6.10–14.52 4.99–15.63 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 51.38 44.59–58.17 42.92–59.84 | 47.72 40.93–54.50 39.26–56.18 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 477 410–544 391–562 | 441 374–507 357–525 | 918 784–1051 748–1087 | 62% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.51 63.48–71.54 62.19–72.83 | 69.57 65.25–73.89 63.94–75.20 | — | 37% 58% |
| Fouls | 10.33 7.49–13.17 6.74–13.92 | 10.74 7.80–13.69 7.05–14.44 | 21.07 15.29–26.86 13.79–28.36 | 42% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.42 1.25–3.58 0.95–3.88 | 1.38 0.29–2.48 0.00–2.77 | 3.80 1.55–6.05 0.96–6.64 | 60% 19% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.45 0.09–2.72 | 1.80 0.67–2.93 0.38–3.22 | 3.21 1.03–5.39 0.47–5.94 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.53 | 2.91 1.35–4.47 0.93–4.89 | 5.62 2.63–8.61 1.82–9.42 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.