Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
17%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.002.423.41safe0.03–1.971.56–3.271.59–5.24safer0.00–2.221.33–3.501.11–5.72
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction3.517.0710.58safe1.65–5.385.32–8.816.98–14.19safer1.16–5.874.86–9.276.02–15.14
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4617.9928.46safe6.54–14.3914.43–21.5620.97–35.94safer5.45–15.4813.47–22.5118.92–37.99
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction6.8312.6519.48safe3.89–9.779.97–15.3313.86–25.10safer3.06–10.609.23–16.0712.29–26.67
Blocked shots
16%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction2.955.218.16safe1.07–4.833.56–6.864.62–11.70safer0.52–5.383.06–7.363.59–12.73
Corners
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.835.949.77safe1.62–6.043.94–7.945.56–13.99safer1.04–6.623.41–8.484.45–15.09
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction35.9864.91safe29.19–42.7858.13–71.70safer27.52–44.4456.46–73.37
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction3866611047safe319–453595–727913–1180safer300–471577–745877–1216
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction70.4485.61safe66.41–74.4781.29–89.94safer65.12–75.7679.98–91.24
Fouls
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0610.0721.13safe8.22–13.907.12–13.0115.35–26.91safer7.47–14.656.38–13.7613.84–28.42
Offsides
46%
19%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.134.56safe1.27–3.591.03–3.222.31–6.81safer0.97–3.890.75–3.511.72–7.40
Yellow cards
50%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.403.32safe0.87–2.970.27–2.531.14–5.50safer0.61–3.240.00–2.820.58–6.05
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.060.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.49safer0.00–0.400.00–0.380.00–0.78
GK saves
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.062.366.42safe2.62–5.500.80–3.923.43–9.41safer2.24–5.880.38–4.342.62–10.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 0.03–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 2.42 1.56–3.27 1.33–3.50 | 3.41 1.59–5.24 1.11–5.72 | 14% 17% 69% |
| Shots on target | 3.51 1.65–5.38 1.16–5.87 | 7.07 5.32–8.81 4.86–9.27 | 10.58 6.98–14.19 6.02–15.14 | 83% |
| Total shots | 10.46 6.54–14.39 5.45–15.48 | 17.99 14.43–21.56 13.47–22.51 | 28.46 20.97–35.94 18.92–37.99 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 6.83 3.89–9.77 3.06–10.60 | 12.65 9.97–15.33 9.23–16.07 | 19.48 13.86–25.10 12.29–26.67 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 1.07–4.83 0.52–5.38 | 5.21 3.56–6.86 3.06–7.36 | 8.16 4.62–11.70 3.59–12.73 | 16% 73% |
| Corners | 3.83 1.62–6.04 1.04–6.62 | 5.94 3.94–7.94 3.41–8.48 | 9.77 5.56–13.99 4.45–15.09 | 20% 70% |
| Possession % | 35.98 29.19–42.78 27.52–44.44 | 64.91 58.13–71.70 56.46–73.37 | — | 95% |
| Passes | 386 319–453 300–471 | 661 595–727 577–745 | 1047 913–1180 877–1216 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.44 66.41–74.47 65.12–75.76 | 85.61 81.29–89.94 79.98–91.24 | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 11.06 8.22–13.90 7.47–14.65 | 10.07 7.12–13.01 6.38–13.76 | 21.13 15.35–26.91 13.84–28.42 | 54% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.43 1.27–3.59 0.97–3.89 | 2.13 1.03–3.22 0.75–3.51 | 4.56 2.31–6.81 1.72–7.40 | 46% 19% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.61–3.24 | 1.40 0.27–2.53 0.00–2.82 | 3.32 1.14–5.50 0.58–6.05 | 50% 22% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 4.06 2.62–5.50 2.24–5.88 | 2.36 0.80–3.92 0.38–4.34 | 6.42 3.43–9.41 2.62–10.23 | 68% 13% 19% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.