Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.582.96safe0.42–2.350.72–2.431.14–4.78safer0.17–2.600.49–2.660.66–5.26
Shots on target
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.535.299.82safe2.67–6.393.55–7.046.22–13.43safer2.18–6.883.09–7.505.26–14.38
Total shots
38%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4814.6428.12safe9.55–17.4011.08–18.2020.63–35.61safer8.46–18.5010.12–19.1618.58–37.66
Shots in box
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction9.4610.5920.04safe6.51–12.407.90–13.2714.42–25.66safer5.68–13.237.17–14.0012.85–27.23
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.814.418.22safe1.93–5.692.76–6.064.68–11.75safer1.38–6.232.27–6.563.65–12.79
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.805.5910.38safe2.58–7.013.59–7.596.17–14.60safer2.01–7.583.05–8.125.06–15.70
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.7056.14safe37.91–51.4949.36–62.93safer36.24–53.1647.68–64.60
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction403509912safe336–470442–575778–1045safer317–488425–593742–1081
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction70.0280.24safe65.99–74.0575.92–84.57safer64.70–75.3474.61–85.87
Fouls
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1412.1925.33safe10.31–15.989.25–15.1319.55–31.12safer9.55–16.748.50–15.8818.05–32.62
Offsides
41%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.813.69safe0.72–3.040.72–2.901.44–5.95safer0.42–3.340.43–3.190.85–6.54
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.104.13safe0.98–3.080.97–3.231.95–6.31safer0.72–3.350.68–3.521.39–6.86
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.512.976.48safe2.07–4.951.41–4.523.49–9.47safer1.69–5.330.99–4.952.67–10.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.35 0.17–2.60 | 1.58 0.72–2.43 0.49–2.66 | 2.96 1.14–4.78 0.66–5.26 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.39 2.18–6.88 | 5.29 3.55–7.04 3.09–7.50 | 9.82 6.22–13.43 5.26–14.38 | 34% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.48 9.55–17.40 8.46–18.50 | 14.64 11.08–18.20 10.12–19.16 | 28.12 20.63–35.61 18.58–37.66 | 38% 55% |
| Shots in box | 9.46 6.51–12.40 5.68–13.23 | 10.59 7.90–13.27 7.17–14.00 | 20.04 14.42–25.66 12.85–27.23 | 36% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 1.93–5.69 1.38–6.23 | 4.41 2.76–6.06 2.27–6.56 | 8.22 4.68–11.75 3.65–12.79 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 4.80 2.58–7.01 2.01–7.58 | 5.59 3.59–7.59 3.05–8.12 | 10.38 6.17–14.60 5.06–15.70 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 44.70 37.91–51.49 36.24–53.16 | 56.14 49.36–62.93 47.68–64.60 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 403 336–470 317–488 | 509 442–575 425–593 | 912 778–1045 742–1081 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.02 65.99–74.05 64.70–75.34 | 80.24 75.92–84.57 74.61–85.87 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 13.14 10.31–15.98 9.55–16.74 | 12.19 9.25–15.13 8.50–15.88 | 25.33 19.55–31.12 18.05–32.62 | 54% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.81 0.72–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 41% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.72–3.35 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.39–6.86 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.51 2.07–4.95 1.69–5.33 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.99–4.95 | 6.48 3.49–9.47 2.67–10.28 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.