Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.482.67safe0.22–2.160.63–2.340.85–4.49safer0.00–2.410.40–2.570.37–4.97
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.034.298.31safe2.16–5.892.54–6.034.71–11.92safer1.67–6.382.08–6.493.75–12.87
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7513.2225.97safe8.83–16.689.65–16.7818.48–33.46safer7.74–17.778.69–17.7416.43–35.51
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.228.4616.68safe5.28–11.165.78–11.1411.05–22.30safer4.45–11.995.04–11.889.49–23.87
Blocked shots
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.897.09safe1.32–5.082.24–5.553.56–10.63safer0.77–5.621.75–6.042.52–11.66
Corners
42%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.895.059.94safe2.68–7.113.05–7.055.73–14.15safer2.11–7.682.51–7.584.62–15.26
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.4057.44safe36.61–50.1950.66–64.23safer34.94–51.8648.99–65.90
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction371484855safe304–438417–550721–988safer285–456400–568685–1024
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction66.1974.16safe62.16–70.2269.83–78.48safer60.87–71.5268.52–79.79
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9012.5125.41safe10.06–15.749.57–15.4619.63–31.19safer9.31–16.498.82–16.2018.12–32.70
Offsides
70%
16%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.811.234.04safe1.65–3.970.14–2.331.79–6.29safer1.35–4.270.00–2.611.20–6.88
Yellow cards
40%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.044.10safe1.02–3.120.91–3.171.93–6.28safer0.75–3.380.62–3.461.37–6.84
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.915.70safe1.35–4.221.36–4.472.71–8.69safer0.96–4.610.93–4.891.90–9.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.48 0.63–2.34 0.40–2.57 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.03 2.16–5.89 1.67–6.38 | 4.29 2.54–6.03 2.08–6.49 | 8.31 4.71–11.92 3.75–12.87 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.75 8.83–16.68 7.74–17.77 | 13.22 9.65–16.78 8.69–17.74 | 25.97 18.48–33.46 16.43–35.51 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.22 5.28–11.16 4.45–11.99 | 8.46 5.78–11.14 5.04–11.88 | 16.68 11.05–22.30 9.49–23.87 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.32–5.08 0.77–5.62 | 3.89 2.24–5.55 1.75–6.04 | 7.09 3.56–10.63 2.52–11.66 | 32% 15% 53% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.68–7.11 2.11–7.68 | 5.05 3.05–7.05 2.51–7.58 | 9.94 5.73–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 42% 46% |
| Possession % | 43.40 36.61–50.19 34.94–51.86 | 57.44 50.66–64.23 48.99–65.90 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 371 304–438 285–456 | 484 417–550 400–568 | 855 721–988 685–1024 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.19 62.16–70.22 60.87–71.52 | 74.16 69.83–78.48 68.52–79.79 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.90 10.06–15.74 9.31–16.49 | 12.51 9.57–15.46 8.82–16.20 | 25.41 19.63–31.19 18.12–32.70 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.81 1.65–3.97 1.35–4.27 | 1.23 0.14–2.33 0.00–2.61 | 4.04 1.79–6.29 1.20–6.88 | 70% 16% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.75–3.38 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 4.10 1.93–6.28 1.37–6.84 | 40% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 2.91 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.89 | 5.70 2.71–8.69 1.90–9.50 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.