Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.102.72safe0.65–2.590.24–1.950.90–4.54safer0.40–2.840.01–2.180.42–5.02
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.058.89safe2.99–6.712.30–5.795.29–12.50safer2.50–7.201.84–6.264.33–13.46
Total shots
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7612.3226.08safe9.84–17.698.76–15.8818.59–33.57safer8.74–18.787.80–16.8416.54–35.62
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.087.8416.92safe6.14–12.025.16–10.5211.30–22.54safer5.31–12.854.42–11.269.73–24.11
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.792.896.68safe1.91–5.671.23–4.543.14–10.21safer1.37–6.220.74–5.032.11–11.25
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.674.299.96safe3.46–7.892.29–6.295.75–14.17safer2.88–8.461.76–6.824.64–15.28
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.9943.85safe49.20–62.7837.07–50.64safer47.53–64.4535.39–52.31
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction501391892safe434–568324–457758–1025safer416–586307–475722–1061
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction71.2770.54safe67.24–75.3066.21–74.86safer65.94–76.5964.90–76.17
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0213.1925.21safe9.18–14.8610.24–16.1319.42–30.99safer8.42–15.619.49–16.8817.92–32.49
Offsides
15%
14%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.513.244.74safe0.34–2.672.14–4.332.49–6.99safer0.04–2.971.85–4.621.90–7.58
Yellow cards
29%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.404.20safe0.76–2.861.27–3.532.03–6.38safer0.49–3.120.98–3.821.47–6.94
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.843.125.96safe1.40–4.271.57–4.682.97–8.95safer1.01–4.661.14–5.102.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.65–2.59 0.40–2.84 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 50% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.71 2.50–7.20 | 4.05 2.30–5.79 1.84–6.26 | 8.89 5.29–12.50 4.33–13.46 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.76 9.84–17.69 8.74–18.78 | 12.32 8.76–15.88 7.80–16.84 | 26.08 18.59–33.57 16.54–35.62 | 57% 35% |
| Shots in box | 9.08 6.14–12.02 5.31–12.85 | 7.84 5.16–10.52 4.42–11.26 | 16.92 11.30–22.54 9.73–24.11 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.67 1.37–6.22 | 2.89 1.23–4.54 0.74–5.03 | 6.68 3.14–10.21 2.11–11.25 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.67 3.46–7.89 2.88–8.46 | 4.29 2.29–6.29 1.76–6.82 | 9.96 5.75–14.17 4.64–15.28 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.99 49.20–62.78 47.53–64.45 | 43.85 37.07–50.64 35.39–52.31 | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 501 434–568 416–586 | 391 324–457 307–475 | 892 758–1025 722–1061 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.27 67.24–75.30 65.94–76.59 | 70.54 66.21–74.86 64.90–76.17 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 12.02 9.18–14.86 8.42–15.61 | 13.19 10.24–16.13 9.49–16.88 | 25.21 19.42–30.99 17.92–32.49 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.34–2.67 0.04–2.97 | 3.24 2.14–4.33 1.85–4.62 | 4.74 2.49–6.99 1.90–7.58 | 15% 14% 71% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.49–3.12 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.20 2.03–6.38 1.47–6.94 | 29% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.84 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 3.12 1.57–4.68 1.14–5.10 | 5.96 2.97–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.