Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.512.72safe0.24–2.180.66–2.370.90–4.54safer0.00–2.430.43–2.600.42–5.02
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.065.139.19safe2.19–5.923.39–6.875.58–12.79safer1.70–6.412.92–7.344.62–13.75
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7714.2826.06safe7.85–15.7010.72–17.8518.57–33.54safer6.76–16.799.76–18.8116.52–35.59
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction7.759.6817.43safe4.81–10.707.00–12.3611.81–23.05safer3.98–11.536.26–13.0910.24–24.62
Blocked shots
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.654.097.75safe1.77–5.542.44–5.754.21–11.28safer1.23–6.081.95–6.243.18–12.32
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.745.5210.27safe2.53–6.963.52–7.526.06–14.48safer1.96–7.532.99–8.064.95–15.59
Possession %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction42.6758.34safe35.88–49.4651.56–65.13safer34.21–51.1349.89–66.80
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction383530913safe316–450464–597779–1047safer297–468446–614744–1083
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction66.9675.49safe62.93–70.9971.17–79.81safer61.64–72.2969.86–81.12
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1611.5521.71safe7.32–13.008.60–14.4915.93–27.49safer6.57–13.757.86–15.2414.42–29.00
Offsides
38%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.262.414.67safe1.10–3.421.32–3.512.42–6.93safer0.80–3.721.03–3.791.83–7.52
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.963.50safe0.49–2.590.83–3.091.32–5.68safer0.22–2.860.54–3.380.77–6.24
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
56%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.552.636.18safe2.12–4.991.08–4.193.19–9.18safer1.73–5.380.65–4.612.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.51 0.66–2.37 0.43–2.60 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 30% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.06 2.19–5.92 1.70–6.41 | 5.13 3.39–6.87 2.92–7.34 | 9.19 5.58–12.79 4.62–13.75 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.77 7.85–15.70 6.76–16.79 | 14.28 10.72–17.85 9.76–18.81 | 26.06 18.57–33.54 16.52–35.59 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 7.75 4.81–10.70 3.98–11.53 | 9.68 7.00–12.36 6.26–13.09 | 17.43 11.81–23.05 10.24–24.62 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 1.77–5.54 1.23–6.08 | 4.09 2.44–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 7.75 4.21–11.28 3.18–12.32 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Corners | 4.74 2.53–6.96 1.96–7.53 | 5.52 3.52–7.52 2.99–8.06 | 10.27 6.06–14.48 4.95–15.59 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 42.67 35.88–49.46 34.21–51.13 | 58.34 51.56–65.13 49.89–66.80 | — | 16% 81% |
| Passes | 383 316–450 297–468 | 530 464–597 446–614 | 913 779–1047 744–1083 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.96 62.93–70.99 61.64–72.29 | 75.49 71.17–79.81 69.86–81.12 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 10.16 7.32–13.00 6.57–13.75 | 11.55 8.60–14.49 7.86–15.24 | 21.71 15.93–27.49 14.42–29.00 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 2.26 1.10–3.42 0.80–3.72 | 2.41 1.32–3.51 1.03–3.79 | 4.67 2.42–6.93 1.83–7.52 | 38% 19% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.86 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.50 1.32–5.68 0.77–6.24 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.55 2.12–4.99 1.73–5.38 | 2.63 1.08–4.19 0.65–4.61 | 6.18 3.19–9.18 2.38–9.99 | 56% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.