Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.282.77safe0.52–2.460.43–2.140.95–4.59safer0.27–2.710.20–2.360.47–5.07
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.379.00safe2.77–6.502.62–6.115.39–12.60safer2.28–6.992.16–6.574.44–13.56
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8212.1526.97safe10.89–18.748.59–15.7219.48–34.46safer9.80–19.837.63–16.6717.43–36.51
Shots in box
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction9.009.0318.03safe6.05–11.946.35–11.7112.40–23.65safer5.22–12.775.61–12.4510.84–25.22
Blocked shots
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.958.14safe2.31–6.072.30–5.604.60–11.67safer1.76–6.611.80–6.103.57–12.71
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction6.024.6610.68safe3.81–8.232.66–6.666.46–14.89safer3.23–8.812.12–7.195.36–16.00
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.8349.00safe44.03–57.6242.22–55.79safer42.37–59.2940.55–57.46
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction467433901safe400–535367–500767–1034safer382–553349–517731–1070
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction67.1470.01safe63.11–71.1765.69–74.33safer61.82–72.4664.38–75.64
Fouls
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0311.0421.06safe7.19–12.868.09–13.9815.28–26.84safer6.43–13.627.34–14.7313.78–28.35
Offsides
57%
20%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.313.49safe1.02–3.340.22–2.401.23–5.74safer0.71–3.640.00–2.690.64–6.33
Yellow cards
27%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.873.19safe0.26–2.360.75–3.001.01–5.37safer0.00–2.630.45–3.290.45–5.92
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.400.00–0.76
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.015.91safe1.47–4.341.45–4.562.92–8.90safer1.08–4.731.03–4.992.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.46 0.27–2.71 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.36 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.77–6.50 2.28–6.99 | 4.37 2.62–6.11 2.16–6.57 | 9.00 5.39–12.60 4.44–13.56 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.82 10.89–18.74 9.80–19.83 | 12.15 8.59–15.72 7.63–16.67 | 26.97 19.48–34.46 17.43–36.51 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.00 6.05–11.94 5.22–12.77 | 9.03 6.35–11.71 5.61–12.45 | 18.03 12.40–23.65 10.84–25.22 | 45% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.31–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.95 2.30–5.60 1.80–6.10 | 8.14 4.60–11.67 3.57–12.71 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Corners | 6.02 3.81–8.23 3.23–8.81 | 4.66 2.66–6.66 2.12–7.19 | 10.68 6.46–14.89 5.36–16.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 50.83 44.03–57.62 42.37–59.29 | 49.00 42.22–55.79 40.55–57.46 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 467 400–535 382–553 | 433 367–500 349–517 | 901 767–1034 731–1070 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.14 63.11–71.17 61.82–72.46 | 70.01 65.69–74.33 64.38–75.64 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 10.03 7.19–12.86 6.43–13.62 | 11.04 8.09–13.98 7.34–14.73 | 21.06 15.28–26.84 13.78–28.35 | 37% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.71–3.64 | 1.31 0.22–2.40 0.00–2.69 | 3.49 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.33 | 57% 20% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.31 0.26–2.36 0.00–2.63 | 1.87 0.75–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.19 1.01–5.37 0.45–5.92 | 27% 23% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 3.01 1.45–4.56 1.03–4.99 | 5.91 2.92–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.