Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.392.70safe0.34–2.280.53–2.240.87–4.52safer0.09–2.530.31–2.470.40–5.00
Shots on target
36%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.194.728.91safe2.32–6.052.98–6.465.30–12.51safer1.84–6.542.51–6.934.35–13.47
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8213.3226.14safe8.89–16.749.75–16.8818.65–33.62safer7.80–17.838.80–17.8416.60–35.67
Shots in box
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction8.759.4918.23safe5.80–11.696.81–12.1712.61–23.86safer4.97–12.526.07–12.9111.04–25.42
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.977.76safe1.91–5.682.31–5.624.22–11.29safer1.37–6.221.82–6.113.19–12.33
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.349.57safe3.02–7.442.34–6.345.36–13.78safer2.44–8.021.81–6.874.25–14.89
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.6944.22safe49.90–63.4837.44–51.01safer48.23–65.1535.76–52.68
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction529393922safe462–596327–460789–1056safer443–614309–477753–1092
Pass accuracy %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction72.4870.45safe68.45–76.5166.12–74.77safer67.16–77.8064.81–76.08
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5712.0222.59safe7.74–13.419.07–14.9616.81–28.37safer6.98–14.178.32–15.7115.30–29.88
Offsides
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.243.79safe0.40–2.721.14–3.331.54–6.05safer0.09–3.020.86–3.620.95–6.64
Yellow cards
34%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.833.44safe0.56–2.660.70–2.961.26–5.62safer0.29–2.920.41–3.250.70–6.17
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.805.76safe1.52–4.391.24–4.352.76–8.75safer1.13–4.780.82–4.781.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.31–2.47 | 2.70 0.87–4.52 0.40–5.00 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.32–6.05 1.84–6.54 | 4.72 2.98–6.46 2.51–6.93 | 8.91 5.30–12.51 4.35–13.47 | 36% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.82 8.89–16.74 7.80–17.83 | 13.32 9.75–16.88 8.80–17.84 | 26.14 18.65–33.62 16.60–35.67 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.75 5.80–11.69 4.97–12.52 | 9.49 6.81–12.17 6.07–12.91 | 18.23 12.61–23.86 11.04–25.42 | 39% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.97 2.31–5.62 1.82–6.11 | 7.76 4.22–11.29 3.19–12.33 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.02–7.44 2.44–8.02 | 4.34 2.34–6.34 1.81–6.87 | 9.57 5.36–13.78 4.25–14.89 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 56.69 49.90–63.48 48.23–65.15 | 44.22 37.44–51.01 35.76–52.68 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 529 462–596 443–614 | 393 327–460 309–477 | 922 789–1056 753–1092 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.48 68.45–76.51 67.16–77.80 | 70.45 66.12–74.77 64.81–76.08 | — | 58% 37% |
| Fouls | 10.57 7.74–13.41 6.98–14.17 | 12.02 9.07–14.96 8.32–15.71 | 22.59 16.81–28.37 15.30–29.88 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.40–2.72 0.09–3.02 | 2.24 1.14–3.33 0.86–3.62 | 3.79 1.54–6.05 0.95–6.64 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.29–2.92 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.44 1.26–5.62 0.70–6.17 | 34% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 2.80 1.24–4.35 0.82–4.78 | 5.76 2.76–8.75 1.95–9.56 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+