Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.212.50safe0.32–2.260.35–2.060.68–4.32safer0.07–2.510.12–2.290.20–4.80
Shots on target
44%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.953.877.83safe2.09–5.822.13–5.624.22–11.43safer1.60–6.311.67–6.083.27–12.39
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.8024.88safe8.16–16.019.24–16.3617.39–32.37safer7.07–17.108.28–17.3215.34–34.42
Shots in box
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.698.4417.14safe5.75–11.645.76–11.1211.51–22.76safer4.92–12.465.02–11.869.95–24.33
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.717.28safe1.69–5.452.05–5.363.74–10.81safer1.15–6.001.56–5.852.71–11.85
Corners
43%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.935.019.94safe2.72–7.153.01–7.015.73–14.16safer2.15–7.722.48–7.544.62–15.26
Possession %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction46.6553.73safe39.86–53.4446.95–60.52safer38.19–55.1145.28–62.19
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction367423790safe300–434356–489656–924safer282–453339–507621–959
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction65.0370.00safe61.00–69.0665.68–74.32safer59.71–70.3564.37–75.63
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4611.1223.58safe9.62–15.308.18–14.0717.80–29.36safer8.87–16.057.43–14.8116.30–30.87
Offsides
25%
22%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.963.24safe0.12–2.440.86–3.050.98–5.49safer0.00–2.740.58–3.340.39–6.08
Yellow cards
42%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.984.09safe1.06–3.160.85–3.111.91–6.27safer0.79–3.420.56–3.401.35–6.83
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.575.22safe1.21–4.081.02–4.132.23–8.21safer0.82–4.470.59–4.561.41–9.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.21 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.50 0.68–4.32 0.20–4.80 | 39% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.95 2.09–5.82 1.60–6.31 | 3.87 2.13–5.62 1.67–6.08 | 7.83 4.22–11.43 3.27–12.39 | 44% 15% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.08 8.16–16.01 7.07–17.10 | 12.80 9.24–16.36 8.28–17.32 | 24.88 17.39–32.37 15.34–34.42 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.69 5.75–11.64 4.92–12.46 | 8.44 5.76–11.12 5.02–11.86 | 17.14 11.51–22.76 9.95–24.33 | 48% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.69–5.45 1.15–6.00 | 3.71 2.05–5.36 1.56–5.85 | 7.28 3.74–10.81 2.71–11.85 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 4.93 2.72–7.15 2.15–7.72 | 5.01 3.01–7.01 2.48–7.54 | 9.94 5.73–14.16 4.62–15.26 | 43% 45% |
| Possession % | 46.65 39.86–53.44 38.19–55.11 | 53.73 46.95–60.52 45.28–62.19 | — | 32% 64% |
| Passes | 367 300–434 282–453 | 423 356–489 339–507 | 790 656–924 621–959 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.03 61.00–69.06 59.71–70.35 | 70.00 65.68–74.32 64.37–75.63 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 12.46 9.62–15.30 8.87–16.05 | 11.12 8.18–14.07 7.43–14.81 | 23.58 17.80–29.36 16.30–30.87 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.28 0.12–2.44 0.00–2.74 | 1.96 0.86–3.05 0.58–3.34 | 3.24 0.98–5.49 0.39–6.08 | 25% 22% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.79–3.42 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 4.09 1.91–6.27 1.35–6.83 | 42% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.21–4.08 0.82–4.47 | 2.57 1.02–4.13 0.59–4.56 | 5.22 2.23–8.21 1.41–9.02 | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.