Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.543.23safe0.72–2.660.69–2.401.41–5.05safer0.47–2.910.46–2.630.93–5.53
Shots on target
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.6010.06safe3.59–7.312.86–6.356.45–13.66safer3.10–7.802.40–6.815.50–14.62
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2212.4126.63safe10.30–18.158.84–15.9719.14–34.12safer9.21–19.247.88–16.9317.09–36.17
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction10.328.8219.14safe7.38–13.276.13–11.5013.52–24.76safer6.55–14.105.40–12.2311.95–26.33
Blocked shots
49%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.434.028.45safe2.55–6.312.37–5.674.91–11.98safer2.00–6.861.87–6.163.88–13.02
Corners
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.499.88safe3.18–7.602.49–6.495.67–14.09safer2.60–8.181.96–7.024.56–15.20
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.4751.73safe41.67–55.2644.95–58.52safer40.01–56.9343.28–60.19
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction456484941safe389–524418–551807–1074safer371–542400–568771–1110
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction72.8477.69safe68.82–76.8773.37–82.01safer67.52–78.1772.06–83.32
Fouls
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8812.2422.12safe7.04–12.719.30–15.1916.34–27.90safer6.28–13.478.55–15.9414.83–29.41
Offsides
47%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.623.62safe0.83–3.150.53–2.721.36–5.87safer0.53–3.460.24–3.000.77–6.46
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.343.93safe0.54–2.641.21–3.471.75–6.11safer0.28–2.910.92–3.761.19–6.67
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
36%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.506.56safe1.63–4.501.94–5.053.57–9.55safer1.24–4.881.52–5.482.75–10.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.72–2.66 0.47–2.91 | 1.54 0.69–2.40 0.46–2.63 | 3.23 1.41–5.05 0.93–5.53 | 41% 23% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.45 3.59–7.31 3.10–7.80 | 4.60 2.86–6.35 2.40–6.81 | 10.06 6.45–13.66 5.50–14.62 | 54% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.22 10.30–18.15 9.21–19.24 | 12.41 8.84–15.97 7.88–16.93 | 26.63 19.14–34.12 17.09–36.17 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 10.32 7.38–13.27 6.55–14.10 | 8.82 6.13–11.50 5.40–12.23 | 19.14 13.52–24.76 11.95–26.33 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.55–6.31 2.00–6.86 | 4.02 2.37–5.67 1.87–6.16 | 8.45 4.91–11.98 3.88–13.02 | 49% 14% 38% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.60 2.60–8.18 | 4.49 2.49–6.49 1.96–7.02 | 9.88 5.67–14.09 4.56–15.20 | 55% 33% |
| Possession % | 48.47 41.67–55.26 40.01–56.93 | 51.73 44.95–58.52 43.28–60.19 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 456 389–524 371–542 | 484 418–551 400–568 | 941 807–1074 771–1110 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.84 68.82–76.87 67.52–78.17 | 77.69 73.37–82.01 72.06–83.32 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 9.88 7.04–12.71 6.28–13.47 | 12.24 9.30–15.19 8.55–15.94 | 22.12 16.34–27.90 14.83–29.41 | 27% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.46 | 1.62 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.00 | 3.62 1.36–5.87 0.77–6.46 | 47% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 2.34 1.21–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 3.93 1.75–6.11 1.19–6.67 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.88 | 3.50 1.94–5.05 1.52–5.48 | 6.56 3.57–9.55 2.75–10.36 | 36% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+