Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
25%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.622.73safe0.14–2.080.76–2.470.91–4.55safer0.00–2.330.53–2.700.43–5.03
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.008.98safe2.11–5.843.26–6.745.37–12.58safer1.63–6.332.79–7.214.42–13.54
Total shots
28%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5615.1727.73safe8.64–16.4911.61–18.7320.24–35.22safer7.54–17.5810.65–19.6918.19–37.27
Shots in box
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4010.7219.12safe5.46–11.348.04–13.4013.50–24.74safer4.63–12.177.30–14.1311.93–26.31
Blocked shots
28%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.905.139.03safe2.02–5.783.48–6.795.50–12.57safer1.48–6.332.99–7.284.46–13.60
Corners
41%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction5.385.6211.01safe3.17–7.603.62–7.626.79–15.22safer2.59–8.173.09–8.165.69–16.33
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.5854.31safe38.79–52.3747.53–61.09safer37.12–54.0445.85–62.77
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction423494917safe356–490428–561784–1051safer338–508410–578748–1087
Pass accuracy %
23%
72%
homeawayprediction70.1775.30safe66.14–74.2070.97–79.62safer64.85–75.5069.66–80.93
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8610.5421.39safe8.02–13.707.59–13.4815.61–27.18safer7.26–14.456.84–14.2314.11–28.68
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.683.35safe0.50–2.830.59–2.781.09–5.60safer0.20–3.130.30–3.060.50–6.19
Yellow cards
35%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.983.76safe0.73–2.830.85–3.111.58–5.94safer0.47–3.100.56–3.401.02–6.49
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.15safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.765.86safe1.67–4.541.20–4.312.87–8.85safer1.28–4.930.78–4.742.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.08 0.00–2.33 | 1.62 0.76–2.47 0.53–2.70 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.43–5.03 | 26% 25% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.11–5.84 1.63–6.33 | 5.00 3.26–6.74 2.79–7.21 | 8.98 5.37–12.58 4.42–13.54 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 12.56 8.64–16.49 7.54–17.58 | 15.17 11.61–18.73 10.65–19.69 | 27.73 20.24–35.22 18.19–37.27 | 28% 66% |
| Shots in box | 8.40 5.46–11.34 4.63–12.17 | 10.72 8.04–13.40 7.30–14.13 | 19.12 13.50–24.74 11.93–26.31 | 26% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 2.02–5.78 1.48–6.33 | 5.13 3.48–6.79 2.99–7.28 | 9.03 5.50–12.57 4.46–13.60 | 28% 59% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.17–7.60 2.59–8.17 | 5.62 3.62–7.62 3.09–8.16 | 11.01 6.79–15.22 5.69–16.33 | 41% 47% |
| Possession % | 45.58 38.79–52.37 37.12–54.04 | 54.31 47.53–61.09 45.85–62.77 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 338–508 | 494 428–561 410–578 | 917 784–1051 748–1087 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.17 66.14–74.20 64.85–75.50 | 75.30 70.97–79.62 69.66–80.93 | — | 23% 72% |
| Fouls | 10.86 8.02–13.70 7.26–14.45 | 10.54 7.59–13.48 6.84–14.23 | 21.39 15.61–27.18 14.11–28.68 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.50–2.83 0.20–3.13 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.06 | 3.35 1.09–5.60 0.50–6.19 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.76 1.58–5.94 1.02–6.49 | 35% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.67–4.54 1.28–4.93 | 2.76 1.20–4.31 0.78–4.74 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.06–9.67 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.