Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
20%
20%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.162.133.29safe0.19–2.131.28–2.991.47–5.12safer0.00–2.381.05–3.220.99–5.60
Shots on target
21%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction4.156.2510.40safe2.29–6.024.50–7.996.80–14.01safer1.80–6.514.04–8.465.84–14.96
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9915.5228.51safe9.06–16.9111.96–19.0921.02–36.00safer7.97–18.0011.00–20.0418.97–38.05
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction8.1811.0219.21safe5.24–11.128.34–13.7113.58–24.83safer4.41–11.957.61–14.4412.02–26.40
Blocked shots
30%
13%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.704.678.37safe1.81–5.583.02–6.324.83–11.90safer1.27–6.122.53–6.823.80–12.94
Corners
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.555.4910.04safe2.34–6.773.49–7.495.83–14.26safer1.77–7.342.96–8.024.72–15.36
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction40.5759.51safe33.78–47.3652.73–66.30safer32.11–49.0351.06–67.97
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction392575967safe325–459509–642834–1101safer306–477492–659798–1137
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction74.1783.40safe70.14–78.2079.07–87.72safer68.84–79.4977.76–89.03
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4111.8324.23safe9.57–15.248.88–14.7718.45–30.02safer8.81–16.008.13–15.5216.95–31.52
Offsides
58%
17%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.851.904.76safe1.69–4.010.81–3.002.50–7.01safer1.39–4.310.52–3.281.91–7.60
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.964.08safe1.07–3.170.83–3.091.91–6.26safer0.81–3.440.54–3.381.35–6.82
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.766.65safe2.46–5.331.20–4.313.66–9.65safer2.07–5.720.78–4.742.85–10.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 2.13 1.28–2.99 1.05–3.22 | 3.29 1.47–5.12 0.99–5.60 | 20% 20% 60% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.29–6.02 1.80–6.51 | 6.25 4.50–7.99 4.04–8.46 | 10.40 6.80–14.01 5.84–14.96 | 21% 69% |
| Total shots | 12.99 9.06–16.91 7.97–18.00 | 15.52 11.96–19.09 11.00–20.04 | 28.51 21.02–36.00 18.97–38.05 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 8.18 5.24–11.12 4.41–11.95 | 11.02 8.34–13.71 7.61–14.44 | 19.21 13.58–24.83 12.02–26.40 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 1.81–5.58 1.27–6.12 | 4.67 3.02–6.32 2.53–6.82 | 8.37 4.83–11.90 3.80–12.94 | 30% 13% 56% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.34–6.77 1.77–7.34 | 5.49 3.49–7.49 2.96–8.02 | 10.04 5.83–14.26 4.72–15.36 | 32% 55% |
| Possession % | 40.57 33.78–47.36 32.11–49.03 | 59.51 52.73–66.30 51.06–67.97 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 392 325–459 306–477 | 575 509–642 492–659 | 967 834–1101 798–1137 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.17 70.14–78.20 68.84–79.49 | 83.40 79.07–87.72 77.76–89.03 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.41 9.57–15.24 8.81–16.00 | 11.83 8.88–14.77 8.13–15.52 | 24.23 18.45–30.02 16.95–31.52 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.85 1.69–4.01 1.39–4.31 | 1.90 0.81–3.00 0.52–3.28 | 4.76 2.50–7.01 1.91–7.60 | 58% 17% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.17 0.81–3.44 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 4.08 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.90 2.46–5.33 2.07–5.72 | 2.76 1.20–4.31 0.78–4.74 | 6.65 3.66–9.65 2.85–10.46 | 60% 14% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.