Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.152.74safe0.63–2.560.30–2.000.92–4.57safer0.37–2.810.07–2.230.44–5.05
Shots on target
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.073.848.91safe3.21–6.932.10–5.585.31–12.52safer2.72–7.421.63–6.054.35–13.47
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8910.6425.53safe10.96–18.817.08–14.2118.04–33.02safer9.87–19.906.12–15.1715.99–35.07
Shots in box
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.297.2716.56safe6.35–12.234.59–9.9510.94–22.18safer5.52–13.063.85–10.689.37–23.75
Blocked shots
62%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.292.997.29safe2.41–6.181.34–4.653.75–10.82safer1.87–6.720.85–5.142.72–11.86
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.6610.35safe3.47–7.902.66–6.666.14–14.56safer2.90–8.472.13–7.205.03–15.67
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.5049.26safe44.71–58.2942.47–56.04safer43.04–59.9640.80–57.71
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction468434902safe401–535368–501769–1036safer383–553351–518733–1072
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction68.2070.00safe64.17–72.2365.67–74.32safer62.87–73.5264.37–75.63
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6012.2122.80safe7.76–13.439.26–15.1517.02–28.58safer7.00–14.198.51–15.9015.51–30.09
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.783.22safe0.28–2.600.69–2.870.97–5.48safer0.00–2.910.40–3.160.38–6.07
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.013.60safe0.53–2.630.88–3.141.42–5.77safer0.27–2.900.59–3.430.86–6.33
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.315.74safe1.00–3.871.75–4.862.75–8.73safer0.61–4.261.33–5.291.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.63–2.56 0.37–2.81 | 1.15 0.30–2.00 0.07–2.23 | 2.74 0.92–4.57 0.44–5.05 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.93 2.72–7.42 | 3.84 2.10–5.58 1.63–6.05 | 8.91 5.31–12.52 4.35–13.47 | 60% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.89 10.96–18.81 9.87–19.90 | 10.64 7.08–14.21 6.12–15.17 | 25.53 18.04–33.02 15.99–35.07 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.29 6.35–12.23 5.52–13.06 | 7.27 4.59–9.95 3.85–10.68 | 16.56 10.94–22.18 9.37–23.75 | 65% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 2.41–6.18 1.87–6.72 | 2.99 1.34–4.65 0.85–5.14 | 7.29 3.75–10.82 2.72–11.86 | 62% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.47–7.90 2.90–8.47 | 4.66 2.66–6.66 2.13–7.20 | 10.35 6.14–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 51.50 44.71–58.29 43.04–59.96 | 49.26 42.47–56.04 40.80–57.71 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 468 401–535 383–553 | 434 368–501 351–518 | 902 769–1036 733–1072 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.20 64.17–72.23 62.87–73.52 | 70.00 65.67–74.32 64.37–75.63 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 10.60 7.76–13.43 7.00–14.19 | 12.21 9.26–15.15 8.51–15.90 | 22.80 17.02–28.58 15.51–30.09 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.91 | 1.78 0.69–2.87 0.40–3.16 | 3.22 0.97–5.48 0.38–6.07 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.27–2.90 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.60 1.42–5.77 0.86–6.33 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.00–3.87 0.61–4.26 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.33–5.29 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.94–9.55 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.