Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.332.59safe0.30–2.230.48–2.190.77–4.42safer0.04–2.480.25–2.410.29–4.90
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.254.298.54safe2.38–6.112.55–6.034.93–12.14safer1.89–6.602.08–6.503.98–13.10
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8413.2726.11safe8.91–16.769.71–16.8418.62–33.60safer7.82–17.858.75–17.8016.57–35.65
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.568.6617.22safe5.62–11.505.98–11.3411.60–22.85safer4.79–12.335.24–12.0810.03–24.41
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.423.837.25safe1.54–5.302.18–5.483.72–10.79safer1.00–5.851.69–5.982.68–11.82
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.115.0610.18safe2.90–7.333.06–7.065.96–14.39safer2.33–7.902.53–7.604.86–15.50
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.9055.25safe38.11–51.6948.46–62.03safer36.44–53.3646.79–63.70
Passes
26%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction400475874safe332–467408–541741–1008safer314–485391–559705–1044
Pass accuracy %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction67.0073.78safe62.97–71.0369.46–78.11safer61.67–72.3268.15–79.42
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7211.9623.68safe8.88–14.569.02–14.9117.90–29.47safer8.13–15.318.27–15.6616.40–30.97
Offsides
58%
17%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.911.934.84safe1.75–4.070.83–3.022.59–7.09safer1.45–4.380.54–3.312.00–7.68
Yellow cards
33%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.153.94safe0.74–2.841.02–3.281.76–6.12safer0.47–3.100.73–3.571.21–6.68
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.873.055.91safe1.43–4.301.49–4.602.92–8.91safer1.04–4.691.07–5.032.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.30–2.23 0.04–2.48 | 1.33 0.48–2.19 0.25–2.41 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.90 | 35% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.38–6.11 1.89–6.60 | 4.29 2.55–6.03 2.08–6.50 | 8.54 4.93–12.14 3.98–13.10 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.84 8.91–16.76 7.82–17.85 | 13.27 9.71–16.84 8.75–17.80 | 26.11 18.62–33.60 16.57–35.65 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.56 5.62–11.50 4.79–12.33 | 8.66 5.98–11.34 5.24–12.08 | 17.22 11.60–22.85 10.03–24.41 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.54–5.30 1.00–5.85 | 3.83 2.18–5.48 1.69–5.98 | 7.25 3.72–10.79 2.68–11.82 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.33 2.33–7.90 | 5.06 3.06–7.06 2.53–7.60 | 10.18 5.96–14.39 4.86–15.50 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 44.90 38.11–51.69 36.44–53.36 | 55.25 48.46–62.03 46.79–63.70 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 400 332–467 314–485 | 475 408–541 391–559 | 874 741–1008 705–1044 | 26% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.00 62.97–71.03 61.67–72.32 | 73.78 69.46–78.11 68.15–79.42 | — | 17% 79% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.88–14.56 8.13–15.31 | 11.96 9.02–14.91 8.27–15.66 | 23.68 17.90–29.47 16.40–30.97 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.91 1.75–4.07 1.45–4.38 | 1.93 0.83–3.02 0.54–3.31 | 4.84 2.59–7.09 2.00–7.68 | 58% 17% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.47–3.10 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 3.94 1.76–6.12 1.21–6.68 | 33% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 3.05 1.49–4.60 1.07–5.03 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.