Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.710.783.48safe1.74–3.670.00–1.631.66–5.30safer1.49–3.930.00–1.861.18–5.78
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.783.2711.05safe5.92–9.641.53–5.017.44–14.65safer5.43–10.131.06–5.486.49–15.61
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction22.319.0831.39safe18.38–26.235.52–12.6523.91–38.88safer17.29–27.334.56–13.6121.86–40.93
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction13.906.1820.09safe10.96–16.853.50–8.8614.46–25.71safer10.13–17.682.76–9.6012.90–27.28
Blocked shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction6.371.908.27safe4.49–8.250.24–3.554.73–11.80safer3.94–8.790.00–4.043.69–12.84
Corners
91%
homeawaytotalprediction8.293.2411.53safe6.08–10.511.24–5.247.32–15.74safer5.50–11.080.70–5.776.21–16.85
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction66.5033.58safe59.71–73.2926.79–40.36safer58.04–74.9625.12–42.03
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction667330997safe600–734263–396863–1130safer582–752246–414827–1166
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction84.3773.15safe80.34–88.4068.83–77.47safer79.05–89.7067.52–78.78
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5010.5521.06safe7.67–13.347.61–13.5015.27–26.84safer6.91–14.106.86–14.2513.77–28.34
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.714.36safe0.49–2.811.62–3.802.10–6.61safer0.19–3.111.33–4.091.51–7.20
Yellow cards
23%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.913.07safe0.10–2.200.78–3.040.89–5.24safer0.00–2.470.49–3.330.33–5.80
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
77%
homeawaytotalprediction2.114.496.61safe0.68–3.552.94–6.053.62–9.60safer0.29–3.942.51–6.482.80–10.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.71 1.74–3.67 1.49–3.93 | 0.78 0.00–1.63 0.00–1.86 | 3.48 1.66–5.30 1.18–5.78 | 78% 14% |
| Shots on target | 7.78 5.92–9.64 5.43–10.13 | 3.27 1.53–5.01 1.06–5.48 | 11.05 7.44–14.65 6.49–15.61 | 89% |
| Total shots | 22.31 18.38–26.23 17.29–27.33 | 9.08 5.52–12.65 4.56–13.61 | 31.39 23.91–38.88 21.86–40.93 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 13.90 10.96–16.85 10.13–17.68 | 6.18 3.50–8.86 2.76–9.60 | 20.09 14.46–25.71 12.90–27.28 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 6.37 4.49–8.25 3.94–8.79 | 1.90 0.24–3.55 0.00–4.04 | 8.27 4.73–11.80 3.69–12.84 | 92% |
| Corners | 8.29 6.08–10.51 5.50–11.08 | 3.24 1.24–5.24 0.70–5.77 | 11.53 7.32–15.74 6.21–16.85 | 91% |
| Possession % | 66.50 59.71–73.29 58.04–74.96 | 33.58 26.79–40.36 25.12–42.03 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 667 600–734 582–752 | 330 263–396 246–414 | 997 863–1130 827–1166 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.37 80.34–88.40 79.05–89.70 | 73.15 68.83–77.47 67.52–78.78 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 10.50 7.67–13.34 6.91–14.10 | 10.55 7.61–13.50 6.86–14.25 | 21.06 15.27–26.84 13.77–28.34 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.11 | 2.71 1.62–3.80 1.33–4.09 | 4.36 2.10–6.61 1.51–7.20 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.15 0.10–2.20 0.00–2.47 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.07 0.89–5.24 0.33–5.80 | 23% 22% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.11 0.68–3.55 0.29–3.94 | 4.49 2.94–6.05 2.51–6.48 | 6.61 3.62–9.60 2.80–10.41 | 77% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.