Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.472.61safe0.18–2.110.62–2.320.79–4.44safer0.00–2.360.39–2.550.31–4.92
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.388.37safe2.13–5.852.64–6.124.77–11.98safer1.64–6.342.17–6.593.81–12.93
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3212.7026.02safe9.40–17.259.14–16.2618.54–33.51safer8.30–18.348.18–17.2216.49–35.56
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.558.4316.98safe5.61–11.505.75–11.1111.36–22.61safer4.78–12.325.01–11.859.79–24.17
Blocked shots
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.304.208.50safe2.42–6.182.55–5.854.97–12.04safer1.87–6.722.06–6.353.93–13.07
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.874.889.76safe2.66–7.092.88–6.885.55–13.97safer2.09–7.662.35–7.424.44–15.08
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.2757.41safe35.48–49.0650.63–64.20safer33.81–50.7348.96–65.87
Passes
15%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction390512902safe323–458446–578769–1036safer305–476428–596733–1072
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction66.2676.94safe62.23–70.2972.61–81.26safer60.93–71.5871.30–82.57
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction11.849.9321.78safe9.01–14.686.99–12.8816.00–27.56safer8.25–15.446.24–13.6314.49–29.07
Offsides
37%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.763.45safe0.53–2.850.66–2.851.19–5.70safer0.23–3.150.38–3.140.60–6.29
Yellow cards
43%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.753.69safe0.89–2.980.63–2.881.51–5.87safer0.62–3.250.33–3.170.95–6.43
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.875.79safe1.48–4.351.31–4.432.79–8.78safer1.09–4.740.89–4.851.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.18–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.47 0.62–2.32 0.39–2.55 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 29% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.13–5.85 1.64–6.34 | 4.38 2.64–6.12 2.17–6.59 | 8.37 4.77–11.98 3.81–12.93 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.32 9.40–17.25 8.30–18.34 | 12.70 9.14–16.26 8.18–17.22 | 26.02 18.54–33.51 16.49–35.56 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 8.55 5.61–11.50 4.78–12.32 | 8.43 5.75–11.11 5.01–11.85 | 16.98 11.36–22.61 9.79–24.17 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.42–6.18 1.87–6.72 | 4.20 2.55–5.85 2.06–6.35 | 8.50 4.97–12.04 3.93–13.07 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Corners | 4.87 2.66–7.09 2.09–7.66 | 4.88 2.88–6.88 2.35–7.42 | 9.76 5.55–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 42.27 35.48–49.06 33.81–50.73 | 57.41 50.63–64.20 48.96–65.87 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 390 323–458 305–476 | 512 446–578 428–596 | 902 769–1036 733–1072 | 15% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.26 62.23–70.29 60.93–71.58 | 76.94 72.61–81.26 71.30–82.57 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.84 9.01–14.68 8.25–15.44 | 9.93 6.99–12.88 6.24–13.63 | 21.78 16.00–27.56 14.49–29.07 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.76 0.66–2.85 0.38–3.14 | 3.45 1.19–5.70 0.60–6.29 | 37% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.98 0.62–3.25 | 1.75 0.63–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.69 1.51–5.87 0.95–6.43 | 43% 22% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 2.87 1.31–4.43 0.89–4.85 | 5.79 2.79–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+