Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
28%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.132.34safe0.24–2.180.28–1.990.52–4.16safer0.00–2.430.05–2.210.04–4.64
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.817.92safe2.24–5.972.07–5.554.31–11.52safer1.75–6.461.60–6.023.36–12.48
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5711.6725.23safe9.64–17.498.10–15.2317.75–32.72safer8.55–18.587.14–16.1915.70–34.77
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.088.0417.12safe6.14–12.025.36–10.7311.50–22.75safer5.31–12.854.63–11.469.93–24.31
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.547.76safe2.33–6.101.89–5.204.22–11.29safer1.79–6.641.40–5.693.19–12.33
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.8610.43safe3.36–7.782.86–6.866.21–14.64safer2.78–8.362.32–7.395.11–15.75
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.4249.75safe43.63–57.2142.96–56.53safer41.96–58.8841.29–58.20
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction425413838safe358–493346–479704–972safer340–511329–497669–1007
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction68.4768.70safe64.44–72.5064.37–73.02safer63.15–73.7963.06–74.33
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5012.3824.88safe9.67–15.349.43–15.3219.10–30.66safer8.91–16.108.68–16.0717.59–32.17
Offsides
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.222.52safe0.14–2.460.13–2.310.26–4.77safer0.00–2.760.00–2.600.00–5.36
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.903.73safe0.78–2.870.78–3.031.55–5.91safer0.51–3.140.48–3.320.99–6.46
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.935.48safe1.11–3.991.37–4.482.49–8.47safer0.73–4.370.95–4.911.67–9.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.13 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.21 | 2.34 0.52–4.16 0.04–4.64 | 38% 28% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.24–5.97 1.75–6.46 | 3.81 2.07–5.55 1.60–6.02 | 7.92 4.31–11.52 3.36–12.48 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.57 9.64–17.49 8.55–18.58 | 11.67 8.10–15.23 7.14–16.19 | 25.23 17.75–32.72 15.70–34.77 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.08 6.14–12.02 5.31–12.85 | 8.04 5.36–10.73 4.63–11.46 | 17.12 11.50–22.75 9.93–24.31 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.33–6.10 1.79–6.64 | 3.54 1.89–5.20 1.40–5.69 | 7.76 4.22–11.29 3.19–12.33 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.78 2.78–8.36 | 4.86 2.86–6.86 2.32–7.39 | 10.43 6.21–14.64 5.11–15.75 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 50.42 43.63–57.21 41.96–58.88 | 49.75 42.96–56.53 41.29–58.20 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 425 358–493 340–511 | 413 346–479 329–497 | 838 704–972 669–1007 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.47 64.44–72.50 63.15–73.79 | 68.70 64.37–73.02 63.06–74.33 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 12.50 9.67–15.34 8.91–16.10 | 12.38 9.43–15.32 8.68–16.07 | 24.88 19.10–30.66 17.59–32.17 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.30 0.14–2.46 0.00–2.76 | 1.22 0.13–2.31 0.00–2.60 | 2.52 0.26–4.77 0.00–5.36 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.78–2.87 0.51–3.14 | 1.90 0.78–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.73 1.55–5.91 0.99–6.46 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.11–3.99 0.73–4.37 | 2.93 1.37–4.48 0.95–4.91 | 5.48 2.49–8.47 1.67–9.28 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.