Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.482.88safe0.43–2.370.63–2.331.06–4.70safer0.18–2.620.40–2.560.58–5.18
Shots on target
42%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.639.18safe2.69–6.412.89–6.375.58–12.79safer2.20–6.902.42–6.844.62–13.74
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5913.0026.59safe9.66–17.519.44–16.5619.10–34.08safer8.57–18.608.48–17.5217.05–36.13
Shots in box
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction9.539.1618.69safe6.58–12.476.48–11.8413.07–24.31safer5.75–13.305.74–12.5811.50–25.88
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.123.437.55safe2.24–6.001.78–5.084.01–11.08safer1.69–6.541.29–5.582.98–12.12
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.554.7510.30safe3.34–7.762.75–6.756.09–14.51safer2.76–8.342.22–7.284.98–15.62
Possession %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction49.6250.59safe42.83–56.4143.81–57.38safer41.16–58.0842.13–59.05
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction455468923safe388–522401–534789–1056safer370–540384–552753–1092
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction71.4972.68safe67.46–75.5268.36–77.01safer66.17–76.8167.05–78.32
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7411.3723.11safe8.90–14.588.42–14.3117.33–28.89safer8.15–15.337.67–15.0615.82–30.40
Offsides
13%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction1.453.384.83safe0.29–2.612.29–4.472.58–7.08safer0.00–2.912.00–4.761.99–7.67
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.404.17safe0.72–2.821.27–3.531.99–6.35safer0.46–3.090.98–3.821.44–6.91
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.176.16safe1.55–4.431.61–4.723.16–9.15safer1.17–4.811.18–5.152.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.48 0.63–2.33 0.40–2.56 | 2.88 1.06–4.70 0.58–5.18 | 36% 25% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.69–6.41 2.20–6.90 | 4.63 2.89–6.37 2.42–6.84 | 9.18 5.58–12.79 4.62–13.74 | 42% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.59 9.66–17.51 8.57–18.60 | 13.00 9.44–16.56 8.48–17.52 | 26.59 19.10–34.08 17.05–36.13 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 9.53 6.58–12.47 5.75–13.30 | 9.16 6.48–11.84 5.74–12.58 | 18.69 13.07–24.31 11.50–25.88 | 49% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 2.24–6.00 1.69–6.54 | 3.43 1.78–5.08 1.29–5.58 | 7.55 4.01–11.08 2.98–12.12 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.55 3.34–7.76 2.76–8.34 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.22–7.28 | 10.30 6.09–14.51 4.98–15.62 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 49.62 42.83–56.41 41.16–58.08 | 50.59 43.81–57.38 42.13–59.05 | — | 45% 50% |
| Passes | 455 388–522 370–540 | 468 401–534 384–552 | 923 789–1056 753–1092 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.49 67.46–75.52 66.17–76.81 | 72.68 68.36–77.01 67.05–78.32 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 11.74 8.90–14.58 8.15–15.33 | 11.37 8.42–14.31 7.67–15.06 | 23.11 17.33–28.89 15.82–30.40 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 3.38 2.29–4.47 2.00–4.76 | 4.83 2.58–7.08 1.99–7.67 | 13% 74% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.17 1.99–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.55–4.43 1.17–4.81 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.15 | 6.16 3.16–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.