Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.392.66safe0.30–2.240.54–2.250.84–4.49safer0.05–2.490.31–2.480.36–4.97
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.284.298.57safe2.42–6.142.55–6.034.96–12.18safer1.93–6.632.08–6.504.01–13.13
Total shots
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3613.1626.53safe9.44–17.299.60–16.7319.04–34.01safer8.35–18.388.64–17.6916.99–36.07
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction8.048.7616.81safe5.10–10.996.08–11.4411.18–22.43safer4.27–11.825.34–12.189.62–24.00
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.613.737.34safe1.73–5.492.07–5.383.80–10.87safer1.18–6.041.58–5.872.77–11.91
Corners
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.335.1710.50safe3.12–7.543.17–7.176.29–14.71safer2.54–8.122.64–7.705.18–15.82
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.7451.15safe41.95–55.5344.37–57.94safer40.28–57.2042.70–59.61
Passes
44%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction431448878safe363–498381–514745–1012safer345–516364–532709–1048
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction66.3771.70safe62.34–70.4067.37–76.02safer61.05–71.6966.06–77.33
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8712.0223.89safe9.04–14.719.08–14.9718.11–29.68safer8.28–15.478.33–15.7116.61–31.18
Offsides
24%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.383.92safe0.38–2.701.29–3.481.67–6.18safer0.08–3.001.00–3.761.08–6.76
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.993.75safe0.70–2.800.86–3.121.57–5.92safer0.44–3.070.57–3.411.01–6.48
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.735.60safe1.43–4.301.18–4.292.61–8.59safer1.04–4.690.75–4.711.79–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.39 0.54–2.25 0.31–2.48 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.97 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.28 2.42–6.14 1.93–6.63 | 4.29 2.55–6.03 2.08–6.50 | 8.57 4.96–12.18 4.01–13.13 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.36 9.44–17.29 8.35–18.38 | 13.16 9.60–16.73 8.64–17.69 | 26.53 19.04–34.01 16.99–36.07 | 48% 45% |
| Shots in box | 8.04 5.10–10.99 4.27–11.82 | 8.76 6.08–11.44 5.34–12.18 | 16.81 11.18–22.43 9.62–24.00 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 1.73–5.49 1.18–6.04 | 3.73 2.07–5.38 1.58–5.87 | 7.34 3.80–10.87 2.77–11.91 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.12–7.54 2.54–8.12 | 5.17 3.17–7.17 2.64–7.70 | 10.50 6.29–14.71 5.18–15.82 | 46% 42% |
| Possession % | 48.74 41.95–55.53 40.28–57.20 | 51.15 44.37–57.94 42.70–59.61 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 431 363–498 345–516 | 448 381–514 364–532 | 878 745–1012 709–1048 | 44% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.37 62.34–70.40 61.05–71.69 | 71.70 67.37–76.02 66.06–77.33 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 11.87 9.04–14.71 8.28–15.47 | 12.02 9.08–14.97 8.33–15.71 | 23.89 18.11–29.68 16.61–31.18 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.08–3.00 | 2.38 1.29–3.48 1.00–3.76 | 3.92 1.67–6.18 1.08–6.76 | 24% 19% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 3.75 1.57–5.92 1.01–6.48 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 2.73 1.18–4.29 0.75–4.71 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.79–9.40 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.