Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.232.65safe0.45–2.390.38–2.090.83–4.47safer0.20–2.640.15–2.310.35–4.95
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.364.128.47safe2.49–6.222.38–5.864.87–12.08safer2.00–6.711.91–6.333.91–13.03
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3012.5426.84safe10.38–18.238.97–16.1019.35–34.33safer9.29–19.328.01–17.0617.30–36.38
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.678.8217.49safe5.73–11.626.13–11.5011.86–23.11safer4.90–12.445.40–12.2310.30–24.68
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.747.72safe2.10–5.872.08–5.394.18–11.26safer1.56–6.411.59–5.883.15–12.29
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.924.4810.40safe3.71–8.132.48–6.486.19–14.62safer3.13–8.711.95–7.015.08–15.72
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction53.9545.17safe47.16–60.7438.38–51.95safer45.49–62.4136.71–53.62
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction481399880safe414–548332–465746–1013safer395–566315–483710–1049
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction68.0868.61safe64.05–72.1164.29–72.93safer62.76–73.4062.98–74.24
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1511.4423.59safe9.31–14.998.49–14.3817.80–29.37safer8.55–15.747.74–15.1316.30–30.87
Offsides
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.362.76safe0.24–2.560.27–2.450.50–5.01safer0.00–2.860.00–2.740.00–5.60
Yellow cards
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.163.65safe0.44–2.541.03–3.291.47–5.83safer0.17–2.800.74–3.580.91–6.38
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.762.845.60safe1.32–4.201.28–4.402.61–8.59safer0.94–4.580.86–4.821.79–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.23 0.38–2.09 0.15–2.31 | 2.65 0.83–4.47 0.35–4.95 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.36 2.49–6.22 2.00–6.71 | 4.12 2.38–5.86 1.91–6.33 | 8.47 4.87–12.08 3.91–13.03 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.30 10.38–18.23 9.29–19.32 | 12.54 8.97–16.10 8.01–17.06 | 26.84 19.35–34.33 17.30–36.38 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.67 5.73–11.62 4.90–12.44 | 8.82 6.13–11.50 5.40–12.23 | 17.49 11.86–23.11 10.30–24.68 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.10–5.87 1.56–6.41 | 3.74 2.08–5.39 1.59–5.88 | 7.72 4.18–11.26 3.15–12.29 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 5.92 3.71–8.13 3.13–8.71 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.01 | 10.40 6.19–14.62 5.08–15.72 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 53.95 47.16–60.74 45.49–62.41 | 45.17 38.38–51.95 36.71–53.62 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 481 414–548 395–566 | 399 332–465 315–483 | 880 746–1013 710–1049 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.08 64.05–72.11 62.76–73.40 | 68.61 64.29–72.93 62.98–74.24 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.31–14.99 8.55–15.74 | 11.44 8.49–14.38 7.74–15.13 | 23.59 17.80–29.37 16.30–30.87 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.86 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 2.76 0.50–5.01 0.00–5.60 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.17–2.80 | 2.16 1.03–3.29 0.74–3.58 | 3.65 1.47–5.83 0.91–6.38 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.32–4.20 0.94–4.58 | 2.84 1.28–4.40 0.86–4.82 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.79–9.40 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.