Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.192.49safe0.33–2.270.34–2.050.67–4.32safer0.08–2.520.11–2.280.19–4.80
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.488.53safe2.19–5.912.74–6.234.93–12.14safer1.70–6.402.28–6.693.97–13.09
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4012.4825.88safe9.48–17.338.91–16.0418.39–33.37safer8.39–18.427.95–17.0016.34–35.42
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.678.5517.23safe5.73–11.625.87–11.2311.60–22.85safer4.90–12.445.14–11.9710.04–24.42
Blocked shots
42%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.853.947.79safe1.97–5.742.29–5.594.26–11.33safer1.43–6.281.79–6.083.22–12.36
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.404.8110.20safe3.18–7.612.81–6.815.99–14.42safer2.61–8.182.27–7.344.88–15.52
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.0150.22safe43.22–56.8043.44–57.01safer41.55–58.4741.76–58.68
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction428425852safe361–495358–491719–986safer342–513341–509683–1022
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction65.3570.50safe61.32–69.3866.18–74.82safer60.03–70.6764.87–76.13
Fouls
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3713.1023.47safe7.54–13.2110.15–16.0417.69–29.25safer6.78–13.979.40–16.7916.18–30.76
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.403.12safe0.55–2.870.31–2.500.86–5.37safer0.25–3.170.02–2.790.27–5.96
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.953.41safe0.41–2.510.82–3.081.23–5.59safer0.14–2.770.53–3.370.67–6.14
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.885.79safe1.47–4.341.32–4.442.79–8.78safer1.08–4.730.90–4.861.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.19 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.49 0.67–4.32 0.19–4.80 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.91 1.70–6.40 | 4.48 2.74–6.23 2.28–6.69 | 8.53 4.93–12.14 3.97–13.09 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.40 9.48–17.33 8.39–18.42 | 12.48 8.91–16.04 7.95–17.00 | 25.88 18.39–33.37 16.34–35.42 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 8.67 5.73–11.62 4.90–12.44 | 8.55 5.87–11.23 5.14–11.97 | 17.23 11.60–22.85 10.04–24.42 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.85 1.97–5.74 1.43–6.28 | 3.94 2.29–5.59 1.79–6.08 | 7.79 4.26–11.33 3.22–12.36 | 42% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.40 3.18–7.61 2.61–8.18 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.27–7.34 | 10.20 5.99–14.42 4.88–15.52 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 50.01 43.22–56.80 41.55–58.47 | 50.22 43.44–57.01 41.76–58.68 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 428 361–495 342–513 | 425 358–491 341–509 | 852 719–986 683–1022 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.35 61.32–69.38 60.03–70.67 | 70.50 66.18–74.82 64.87–76.13 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 10.37 7.54–13.21 6.78–13.97 | 13.10 10.15–16.04 9.40–16.79 | 23.47 17.69–29.25 16.18–30.76 | 25% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.40 0.31–2.50 0.02–2.79 | 3.12 0.86–5.37 0.27–5.96 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 0.41–2.51 0.14–2.77 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.41 1.23–5.59 0.67–6.14 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 2.88 1.32–4.44 0.90–4.86 | 5.79 2.79–8.78 1.98–9.59 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+